The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

Date Issued: 02 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

 

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 2 TX/OK/AR: A cold front has moved across the area to the east leaving cold air to pull in behind it.  Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler today with winds being moderate to strong from the north to northwest.  Skies will be clear as the cold, dry air moves into the region. In Texas temperatures will only reach the upper 40s in the north and upper 50s to the south with winds from the northwest in the 15 to 20 mile per hour range.  Skies will be sunny and clear today and the humidity will remain low.  Overnight the clear skies and dry conditions will result in low temperatures dropping below freezing with a freeze warning in effect across the Edwards Plateau and Hill country.  Similar conditions will occur tomorrow with a 5 to 7 degree warming and wind strength diminishing.  Winds will eventually turn from the northwest to the southwest during the day.  To the north conditions will be colder with snow on the ground in northeastern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas.  High temperatures today will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s with mostly sunny conditions and brisk winds from the northwest.  Clearing skies and cold temperatures will drop conditions into the low to mid 20s overnight then a gradual warming will occur tomorrow with temperatures 5 to 7 degrees above todays.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the south over eastern  Texas on strong northerly winds. The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind as cold air drains into the area.  Cold sinking atmospheric conditions results in the air-masses moving along the ground where any entrained particles are quickly filtered.  Sunny skies will prevail across the region but low temperatures and strong gusty winds will occur at the source site today with below freezing conditions expected overnight.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Sunny dry conditions will occur today, but temperatures just getting into the low 40s will reduce the chance of any significant pollen release making for unfavorable conditions.  Cold temperatures tonight and a bit of warming tomorrow, 5 to 10 degrees is expected tomorrow.  In addition, poor atmospheric conditions exist for pollen entrainment and travel with cold heavy air moving across the region at ground level.  With cold, dry conditions little release is expected and therefore a Low threat exists for downwind travel.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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