The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 03 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Friday, January 3 TX/OK/AR: High pressure builds over the region and will bring mild conditions with warming temperatures and sunny skies.  Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer today and tomorrow with lite winds being from the south to southwest today and a more westerly flow tomorrow. Skies will be clear and sunny for the next two days with a chance of some high clouds to the north near Kansas.  In Texas temperatures will reach the upper 50s  to low 60s from north to south and winds will be light, under 5 miles per hour to the east and 10 miles per hour to the west.  Skies will be sunny and clear today with dry, low humidity readings.  High temperatures will be 5 to 7 degrees warmer tomorrow.  Overnight, clear skies and dry conditions will result in low temperatures near freezing with a freeze warning in effect across the Edwards Plateau and Hill country. To the north conditions will be colder with temperatures reaching the low to mid 50s today but near 60 tomorrow.  Sunny conditions, low humidity and light winds from the northwest will prevail.  Clearing skies and cold temperatures will drop conditions into the mid 30s overnight then a gradual warming will occur tomorrow with temperatures 5 to 7 degrees above todays. However the chance of some high clouds increase across the northern region.

 

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the east across northeastern Arkansas then tracks along the Ohio River Valley.  The trajectory characteristics show relatively cold sinking atmospheric conditions that are poor for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind.  In addition, conditions at the source site will be cold today with high temperatures only in the low 40s today and upper 40s tomorrow.  Sunny skies and drying conditions today will give way to more humid conditions with partly cloudy skies tomorrow.  Overnight temperatures will be at or below freezing.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today*** unfavorable conditions for pollen release.  Clearing conditions but with cold temperatures results in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.  In addition the trajectories show poor characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel away from the source.  With the lack of pollen to entrain there is a low threat to any downwind communities.  Conditions will remain marginal tomorrow with slightly warmer temperatures but cloudy conditions and increased humidity. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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