The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Severe

St. Louis MO

Low

 

 

 

Date Issued: 03 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Friday, January 3 TX/OK/AR: High pressure builds over the region and will bring mild conditions with warming temperatures and sunny skies.  Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer today and tomorrow with lite winds being from the south to southwest today and a more westerly flow tomorrow. Skies will be clear and sunny for the next two days with a chance of some high clouds to the north near Kansas.  In Texas temperatures will reach the upper 50s  to low 60s from north to south and winds will be light, under 5 miles per hour to the east and 10 miles per hour to the west.  Skies will be sunny and clear today with dry, low humidity readings.  High temperatures will be 5 to 7 degrees warmer tomorrow.  Overnight, clear skies and dry conditions will result in low temperatures near freezing with a freeze warning in effect across the Edwards Plateau and Hill country. To the north conditions will be colder with temperatures reaching the low to mid 50s today but near 60 tomorrow.  Sunny conditions, low humidity and light winds from the northwest will prevail.  Clearing skies and cold temperatures will drop conditions into the mid 30s overnight then a gradual warming will occur tomorrow with temperatures 5 to 7 degrees above todays. However the chance of some high clouds increase across the northern region.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the northeast over eastern Oklahoma and southern Missouri.  The trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind as conditions for release improve.  Sunny skies and dry conditions will prevail across the region with warming temperatures and light winds at the source site today and tomorrow.  Overnight, low temperatures are expected in the upper 30s with the chance of some high clouds in the area tomorrow and winds will begin to pick-up to moderate conditions.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Severe Threat today *** Favorable conditions for pollen release. Sunny dry conditions will occur today, with warming temperatures into the 50s today and near 60 tomorrow at the source site.  These conditions are favorable for pollen release.  In addition, the trees are nearing the peak of the pollination season therefore a large number of cones should be ready to release their pollen under these favorable conditions.  Good atmospheric conditions for pollen entrainment and travel results in the possibility of a severe threat today along the trajectories which travel over northeastern Oklahoma and across southern Missouri.  Communities along the pathway, such as Tulsa OK and Springfield MO, should prepare for significant amounts of pollen in the atmosphere.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page