The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 04 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 04 and Sunday, January 05 TX/OK/AR: High pressure has built across the region with warm sunny and dry condition expected through the weekend.  In Texas, mild conditions will continue both days as temperatures will reach the mid to upper 60s both Saturday and Sunday.  Winds will be light to moderate today and from the southwest across the Texas area, then lessen overnight and tomorrow. Humidity will remain low with zero percent chance of rain over the weekend.  Temperatures overnight will be mild with readings in the mid to upper 50s.  Similar conditions exist to the north with a weekend of sunny warm weather.  Today, high temperatures will be in the low 60s with low temperatures tonight near 40.   A 5 degree cooling will occur on Sunday and skies may become partly cloudy as a low pressure system moves across the region to the north. Winds will be moderate today from the north to northwest switching to a more southerly direction tomorrow and decreasing to light wind strengths.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the east and southeast caught in the jet stream that is flowing over the region. The upper elevation winds are deflected upwards to great heights. Tomorrow the trajectories will straighten moving directly southward through Arkansas and Louisiana towards the Gulf of Mexico. At the release site, in the Ozark Mountains, partly cloudy weather will predominate both days with temperatures barely reaching the 50s cooling to near freezing overnight. Winds, as in the rest of the region, will be moderate today from the west with light conditions tomorrow from the northwest.  The trajectory for today shows relatively poor conditions at the lowest levels for entrainment and travel, but improves tomorrow.

 

OUTLOOK: Saturday***Moderate Threat today*** mixed conditions for pollen release Sunday: *** Moderate Threat today*** mixed conditions for pollen release.  Conditions today and tomorrow will barely reach the 50s and with partly cloudy skies and cold temperatures overnight result in mixed conditions for pollen release. Poor atmospheric conditions at the lowest levels will result in a low threat for entrainment and travel today.  Tomorrow atmospheric conditions improve with buoyant atmospheric conditions but cool conditions and partly cloudy skies will prevail.  Therefore mixed conditions for release are forecast and a moderate threat for downwind travel is expected.  The communities that may be affected include the Little Rock urban area.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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