The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

Date Issued: 04, January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 04 and Sunday, January 05 TX/OK/AR: High pressure has built across the region with warm sunny and dry condition expected through the weekend.  In Texas, mild conditions will continue both days as temperatures will reach the mid to upper 60s both Saturday and Sunday.  Winds will be light to moderate today and from the southwest across the Texas area, then lessen overnight and tomorrow. Humidity will remain low with zero percent chance of rain over the weekend.  Temperatures overnight will be mild with readings in the mid to upper 50s.  Similar conditions exist to the north with a weekend of sunny warm weather.  Today, high temperatures will be in the low 60s with low temperatures tonight near 40.   A 5 degree cooling will occur on Sunday and skies may become partly cloudy as a low pressure system moves across the region to the north. Winds will be moderate today from the north to northwest switching to a more southerly direction tomorrow and decreasing to light wind strengths.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move eastward and southeasterly at the lowest levels.  At the upper levels the winds are caught in the jet stream and carry quickly to east-southeast. The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind.  However, sunny skies and warm temperatures will prevail at the source site reaching into the 60s today.  Moderate to light winds from the south to southwest will prevail making for good conditions for pollen release.  Overnight conditions will be relatively mild with temperatures in the 40s and clear conditions. Sunday: Similar conditions will occur with warm conditions, but partly cloudy skies will prevail along with light winds.  The winds will switch towards the west in the afternoon as the next weather system moves into the southern Rockies and Colorado Plateau.  Better characteristics for entrainment and travel occur in the forecast trajectories so downwind communities may be affected.

 

OUTLOOK: Saturday: ***Moderate Threat today***favorable conditions for pollen release. Sunday: ***Severe Threat today***favorable conditions for pollen release.   Conditions in the Arbuckle Mountains will be stable with temperatures reaching the low 60s both days with low humidity and dry conditions.  Moderate to light winds from the northwest are expected today decreasing in intensity tomorrow but switching to a southerly direction.  These characteristics will result in favorable conditions for pollen release today.  The air mass trajectory from the source passes to the southeast.   Poor characteristics for entrainment and travel at the lowest levels result in only nearby communities affected from this source.  Therefore a moderate threat exists for entrainment and travel across southeastern Oklahoma into northern Texas. Sunday:  Warm dry conditions will prevail but with the chance of partly cloudy skies, but favorable conditions for release are expected.  The winds in the area reverse direction coming from the south then change quickly towards the east therefore a severe threat is forecast for communities to the west such as Lubbock and Amarillo.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page