The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

Date Issued: 06 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Monday, January 6 TX/OK/AR: Low pressure centered over northeastern Arizona and a jet stream positioned south of Texas will significantly influence the region today.  The weather system will move across the region bringing cloudy conditions to the Texas area and heightened humidity levels.  Skies from Oklahoma City southward will be mostly cloudy to cloudy.  However the chance for rain will be relatively small.  The greatest effect will be that low pressure to the southwest and high pressure in the central plains will result in strong northeasterly winds blowing across the area.  Cold air will drain southward with the jet stream so far south resulting in cold temperatures region wide.  In Texas, high temperatures will be below 60 region wide with the high 50s to the south and low 50s to upper 40s in the north and west.  A slight chance of snow or rain is forecast for the panhandle region.  Conditions will begin to improve tonight, but cloudy conditions will linger. Temperatures near freezing will occur as far south as San Angelo with a frost warning for northern Texas.  Winds will calm overnight.  Tomorrow, high temperatures will continue to be cool with highs barely reaching the mid 50s to the south and the mid 40s in north Texas.  Skies will begin to clear with sunny to partly cloudy conditions from north to south.  In Oklahoma, conditions will be colder with temperatures staying in the 40s.  Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and humidity levels around 50% will prevail across the state.  Winds will also be strong out of the north to northeast.  Overnight clear conditions will drop temperatures into the mid to low 20s region wide with a hard freeze.  Sunny but cold conditions will return to the area on Tuesday with high temperatures in the low 50s to mid 40s from south to north.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from eastern Texas move to west on strong winds associated with the southerly position of the jet stream.  The trajectories show very buoyant conditions as they move quickly out of Texas, across New Mexico and into Arizona.. Each of the trajectories shows characteristics that have been associated with entrainment and travel of pollen that has been released into the atmosphere.  Conditions at the sources will be cool and humid for pollen release with cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.  The trees are nearing the peak of the pollen release season and even with highly marginal conditions some pollen release may occur.   

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today ***Unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.  Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with relatively high humidity and cool temperatures results in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.   However, since the trees are nearing their peak release period some pollen release might be expected.  If so, then the strong winds and buoyant trajectory characteristics should move it quickly to the west towards New Mexico and Arizona.  The trajectory characteristics show good atmospheric conditions leading to entrainment and travel downwind but with poor environmental conditions a low threat for significant downwind travel is forecast.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

Austin, TX

 

 

Junction, TX

 

 

San Angelo, TX

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page