The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 06 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Monday, January 6 TX/OK/AR: Low pressure centered over northeastern Arizona and a jet stream positioned south of Texas will significantly influence the region today.  The weather system will move across the region bringing cloudy conditions to the Texas area and heightened humidity levels.  Skies from Oklahoma City southward will be mostly cloudy to cloudy.  However the chance for rain will be relatively small.  The greatest effect will be that low pressure to the southwest and high pressure in the central plains will result in strong northeasterly winds blowing across the area.  Cold air will drain southward with the jet stream so far south resulting in cold temperatures region wide.  In Texas, high temperatures will be below 60 region wide with the high 50s to the south and low 50s to upper 40s in the north and west.  A slight chance of snow or rain is forecast for the panhandle region.  Conditions will begin to improve tonight, but cloudy conditions will linger. Temperatures near freezing will occur as far south as San Angelo with a frost warning for northern Texas.  Winds will calm overnight.  Tomorrow, high temperatures will continue to be cool with highs barely reaching the mid 50s to the south and the mid 40s in north Texas.  Skies will begin to clear with sunny to partly cloudy conditions from north to south.  In Oklahoma, conditions will be colder with temperatures staying in the 40s.  Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and humidity levels around 50% will prevail across the state.  Winds will also be strong out of the north to northeast.  Overnight clear conditions will drop temperatures into the mid to low 20s region wide with a hard freeze.  Sunny but cold conditions will return to the area on Tuesday with high temperatures in the low 50s to mid 40s from south to north.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the south across western Arkansas then shifts direction back across central Arkansas moving towards the east.  The trajectory characteristics show relatively cold sinking atmospheric conditions that are poor for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind.  In addition, conditions at the source site will be cold today with high temperatures below 40 today and low to mid 40s tomorrow.  Cloudy, humid conditions today will begin to clear tonight leading to temperatures well below freezing tonight and warming sunny conditions tomorrow.  Winds today will be strong from the north to northeast, calming and switching to a west to southwest direction tomorrow.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today*** unfavorable conditions for pollen release.  Cloudy skies with heightened humidity coupled with cold temperatures results in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.  In addition the trajectories show poor characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel away from the source.  With the lack of pollen to entrain there is a low threat to any downwind communities.  Conditions will remain marginal tomorrow with sunny skies and lower humidity but only slightly warmer temperatures. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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