The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

 

 

Date Issued: 06 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

 

Regional Weather: Monday, January 6 TX/OK/AR: Low pressure centered over northeastern Arizona and a jet stream positioned south of Texas will significantly influence the region today.  The weather system will move across the region bringing cloudy conditions to the Texas area and heightened humidity levels.  Skies from Oklahoma City southward will be mostly cloudy to cloudy.  However the chance for rain will be relatively small.  The greatest effect will be that low pressure to the southwest and high pressure in the central plains will result in strong northeasterly winds blowing across the area.  Cold air will drain southward with the jet stream so far south resulting in cold temperatures region wide.  In Texas, high temperatures will be below 60 region wide with the high 50s to the south and low 50s to upper 40s in the north and west.  A slight chance of snow or rain is forecast for the panhandle region.  Conditions will begin to improve tonight, but cloudy conditions will linger. Temperatures near freezing will occur as far south as San Angelo with a frost warning for northern Texas.  Winds will calm overnight.  Tomorrow, high temperatures will continue to be cool with highs barely reaching the mid 50s to the south and the mid 40s in north Texas.  Skies will begin to clear with sunny to partly cloudy conditions from north to south.  In Oklahoma, conditions will be colder with temperatures staying in the 40s.  Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and humidity levels around 50% will prevail across the state.  Winds will also be strong out of the north to northeast.  Overnight clear conditions will drop temperatures into the mid to low 20s region wide with a hard freeze.  Sunny but cold conditions will return to the area on Tuesday with high temperatures in the low 50s to mid 40s from south to north.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the south over central Texas on strong northerly winds. The trajectories show relatively poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind as cold air drains into the area.  Cold sinking atmospheric conditions results in the air-masses moving near the ground where any entrained particles are quickly filtered.  Cloudy skies with humidity levels near 50% and high temperatures below 50 degrees will prevail across the region today with low temperatures tonight in the mid 20s.  Strong winds are expected today calming overnight but maintaining a northeast to southwest flow.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Cloudy, humid conditions, with temperatures below 50 degrees will reduce the chance of any significant pollen release making for unfavorable conditions.  Cold temperatures tonight with minor warming is expected tomorrow.  In addition, poor atmospheric conditions exist for pollen entrainment and travel with cold heavy air moving across the region near ground level.  With cold, humid conditions little release is expected and therefore a Low threat exists for downwind travel.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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