The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 07 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 7 TX/OK/AR: High pressure is entrenched over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma creating clear skies across the region until you are south of San Antonio TX.  The high pressure will be sliding to the southeast over the next day bringing much warmer temperatures on Wednesday.  Cold temperatures overnight will make daytime temperatures today lower over the region.  High temperatures across the southern area of the Edwards Plateau will be in the mid 50s with some high and medium level clouds leaking north from southern most Texas.  Winds will be light across the region.  Low temperatures overnight will warm by 5 degrees into the mid to upper 30s and low 40s from north to south.  On Wednesday, warm temperatures will prevail with sunny skies and moderate winds.  High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s across the region.  Along with the nice conditions, humidity will be low.  In Oklahoma, conditions will be similar with below temperatures Monday night and highs on Tuesday in the mid 50s.  Skies will be sunny with light to moderate winds and low humidity.  Overnight clear conditions will drop temperatures into the mid to low 30s region wide with light to moderate winds blowing from the southwest.    Sunny conditions on Wednesday with warm temperatures into the mid 60s are in store for Wednesday.  

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the east across the Arkansas, Missouri border then up the Ohio River Valley.  The trajectory characteristics show sinking atmospheric conditions, especially at the lowest levels, that is poor for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind.  In addition, conditions at the source site will be cool today with high temperatures just in the upper 40s but warming by 10 to 12 degrees tomorrow.  The sky will be clear and sunny today with low relative humidity and temperatures tonight near freezing.  Winds today will be moderate from the southwest today, tonight and tomorrow.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today*** mixed conditions for pollen release.  Clear  skies with low relative humidity but cool temperatures results in mixed conditions for pollen release today.  The trajectories show poor characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel away from the source with sinking atmospheric conditions.  If pollen is released and able to be entrained it is expected to travel only short distances.  Therefore communities along the Arkansas and Missouri border may experience heightened levels in the atmosphere but beyond those restricted areas no significant deposition should occur therefore there is a low threat today.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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