The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

Date Issued: 07 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 7 TX/OK/AR: High pressure is entrenched over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma creating clear skies across the region until you are south of San Antonio TX.  The high pressure will be sliding to the southeast over the next day bringing much warmer temperatures on Wednesday.  Cold temperatures overnight will make daytime temperatures today lower over the region.  High temperatures across the southern area of the Edwards Plateau will be in the mid 50s with some high and medium level clouds leaking north from southern most Texas.  Winds will be light across the region.  Low temperatures overnight will warm by 5 degrees into the mid to upper 30s and low 40s from north to south.  On Wednesday, warm temperatures will prevail with sunny skies and moderate winds.  High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s across the region.  Along with the nice conditions, humidity will be low.  In Oklahoma, conditions will be similar with below temperatures Monday night and highs on Tuesday in the mid 50s.  Skies will be sunny with light to moderate winds and low humidity.  Overnight clear conditions will drop temperatures into the mid to low 30s region wide with light to moderate winds blowing from the southwest.    Sunny conditions on Wednesday with warm temperatures into the mid 60s are in store for Wednesday.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the east over southern Arkansas then up the Ohio River Valley on winds out of the southwest. The trajectories show mixed conditions for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind.  Unlike the trajectories in Texas, the atmosphere is relatively stable as it moves, therefore if particles become entrained they may move downwind.  Skies will be clear and sunny with low relative humidity levels and light winds from the southwest.  Overnight temperatures will dip into the mid 30s then warm into the 60s tomorrow

 

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today *** favorable conditions for pollen release. Clear, dry conditions, with temperatures in the mid 50s today will result in conditions favorable for pollen release within the Arbuckle Mountain population. Stable atmospheric conditions today will move pollen away from the source towards southern Arkansas.  The trajectories show characteristics associated with some entrainment and travel but are not right for significant downwind delivery therefore a moderate threat is forecast today .  Therefore some movement away from the source is expected over southeastern Oklahoma, maybe as far as Little Rock, but more significant deposition is not expected today.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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