The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 08 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 8 TX/OK/AR: High pressure is entrenched over southeastern Texas bringing clear skies and very mild conditions across the region throughout the day today and into the evening.  Tonight the next push of cold arctic air will start to move into the region from the north dropping temperatures by 10 to 12 degrees in northern localities by tomorrow. High temperatures across the southern area of the Edwards Plateau will reach the low 70s today with sunny skies and low humidity.  Winds will be light across the region and out of the southwest.  Low temperatures overnight will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.  On Thursday, cooler temperatures will begin to work their way into the area dropping temperatures by 10 to 12 degrees as far south as Lubbock and Dallas.  With these changes will come a shift in the winds to out of the north.  Areas southward will see less than a 5 degree reduction in temperatures tomorrow.  Overall winds will be moderate to strong in areas where the greatest temperature differences occur.  In Oklahoma, conditions will be similar with warm mild, sunny conditions today.  Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s across the region.  The colder air will begin to move into the area this afternoon and into tomorrow dropping temperatures significantly.  Temperatures overnight will be in the upper 40s but will rise by less than 10 degrees for highs on Thursday.  Winds will shift from the predominantly light to moderate conditions today from the southwest to stronger northerly breezes overnight and into tomorrow.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the east along the Arkansas and Missouri border and beyond at the upper levels, with the lower level trajectory turning south with the incursion of cold air from the north .  The trajectory characteristics show sinking atmospheric conditions, at the lowest level, that is poor for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind.  The upper elevation winds are more stable to slightly buoyant as they travel.  Conditions at the source site will be warm today with high temperatures in the lower 60s but cooling by 10 to 12 degrees tomorrow.  The sky will be clear and sunny today with low relative humidity and moderate winds from the southwest.  Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s as the colder air moves into the region and the winds switch to out of the north.   Conditions tomorrow will be much cooler.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat Today*** Favorable Conditions for Pollen Release.  Clear  skies with low relative humidity and warm temperatures will result in favorable conditions for pollen release today.  The trajectories show poor characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel at the lowest elevations with sinking atmospheric conditions thus limiting the amount that will travel downwind.  However the upper elevations winds over the site show much better conditions.  If the pollen reaches these levels entrainment and travel is expected towards the east. Therefore communities along the Arkansas and Missouri border may experience heightened levels in the atmosphere but beyond those areas significant deposition should drop off rapidly and therefore there is a moderate threat today.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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