The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

Date Issued: 08 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 8 TX/OK/AR: High pressure is entrenched over southeastern Texas bringing clear skies and very mild conditions across the region throughout the day today and into the evening.  Tonight the next push of cold arctic air will start to move into the region from the north dropping temperatures by 10 to 12 degrees in northern localities by tomorrow. High temperatures across the southern area of the Edwards Plateau will reach the low 70s today with sunny skies and low humidity.  Winds will be light across the region and out of the southwest.  Low temperatures overnight will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.  On Thursday, cooler temperatures will begin to work their way into the area dropping temperatures by 10 to 12 degrees as far south as Lubbock and Dallas.  With these changes will come a shift in the winds to out of the north.  Areas southward will see less than a 5 degree reduction in temperatures tomorrow.  Overall winds will be moderate to strong in areas where the greatest temperature differences occur.  In Oklahoma, conditions will be similar with warm mild, sunny conditions today.  Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s across the region.  The colder air will begin to move into the area this afternoon and into tomorrow dropping temperatures significantly.  Temperatures overnight will be in the upper 40s but will rise by less than 10 degrees for highs on Thursday.  Winds will shift from the predominantly light to moderate conditions today from the southwest to stronger northerly breezes overnight and into tomorrow.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the northeast with the lower winds traveling over the Tulsa area then turning towards the east along the Arkansas and Missouri border.  The upper winds move rapidly towards the east over central Arkansas. The trajectories show mixed conditions for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind.  Unlike the trajectories in Texas, the atmosphere is relatively stable as it moves, therefore if particles become entrained they may move downwind.  Skies will be clear and sunny with low relative humidity levels and light winds from the southwest.  High temperatures today will be in the upper 60s.  Overnight temperatures will dip into the mid 40s but as cold air moves back into the region the winds will switch, coming from the north, and temperatures tomorrow will be significantly cooler. 

 

OUTLOOK: *** Severe Threat Today *** Favorable Conditions for Pollen release. Clear, dry conditions, with temperatures in the upper 60s today will result in conditions favorable for pollen release within the Arbuckle Mountain population. Stable atmospheric conditions today will move pollen away from the source towards northeastern Oklahoma and then along the Arkansas and Missouri border area.  The trajectories show characteristics associated with moderate entrainment and travel.  However, the trees should be prime for release and with the mild conditions significant amounts may be available.  Therefore a severe threat is forecast today with the possibilities of significant amounts moving away from the source towards northeastern Oklahoma and the Tulsa area.  However, the material should not move significantly long distances.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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