The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 09 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 9 TX/OK/AR: High pressure will be moving towards the east and one last day of warm conditions will occur before cooler weather moves into the region.  Skies today will be partly cloudy to the north in Oklahoma and to the south in southern Texas.  Cold air is beginning to push into the area and will continue throughout the day eventually affecting the trajectories across the region. High temperatures across the southern area of the Edwards Plateau will reach the upper 70s today with partly sunny skies and low humidity.  Winds will be light tonight but increase to moderate to strong conditions from south to north.  Low temperatures overnight will be from the mid 30s to mid 40s.  On Friday, cooler temperatures will begin to work their way into the area dropping temperatures by 10 to 15 degrees across the area.  Winds on Friday will slacken to moderate conditions across the region.  In Oklahoma, cooler conditions will arrive today with partly cloudy skies and strong winds from the north. Temperatures will only reach the mid to lower 50s across the region. Temperatures overnight will be well below freezing in the mid 20s and then rise by less than 10 degrees for highs on Friday.  Winds will relax on Friday from  strong to moderate strength out of the north.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the south to southwest along the Arkansas and Oklahoma border into eastern Texas.  The trajectory characteristics show good atmospheric conditions, at the lowest level, with buoyant conditions that are good for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind. However, conditions at the source site will be cold today with high temperatures only reaching the mid 40s and partly cloudy skies.  Winds will be moderate to strong today from the north.  Overnight lows will be well below freezing and struggle to get above the freezing mark tomorrow for the high

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today*** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen Release.  Partly cloudy skies with low relative humidity but cold temperatures will result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.  The trajectories show good characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel but with poor climatic conditions there should be little release from the population.  If any pollen reaches does occur it will be transported into east Texas and join potential material from the Arbuckle Mountains and eastern Edwards Plateau region.  However the forecast conditions suggests that little pollen release can be expected.   For these reasons a low threat is forecast today.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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