The
Mountain
Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
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Low |
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Low |
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Moderate |
Date Issued:
Mountain Cedar Location(s):
Regional Weather: Friday, January 10 TX/OK/AR: High pressure builds over central Texas today bringing sunny but cold conditions compared to yesterdays record setting highs across the region. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler with low relative humidity and moderate winds flowing clockwise over the Plateau. In Texas, high temperatures will range from near 60 in the south to barely into the 50s in northern areas. Sunny skies will predominate and dry conditions will last through the day but increasing humidity and cloudy conditions are expected tomorrow and Sunday. The rotation of the high pressure over the area will dominate the wind patterns of the trajectories taking winds in the west and wrapping them around to the south and then eventually back north again. Low temperatures overnight will see mid 30s to the south and near or below freezing conditions north of central Texas. In Oklahoma, cold conditions are on tap for today with high temperatures only in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy and winds will be moderate from the northwest. Cold, freezing temperatures overnight with readings in the low 20s to teens then similar conditions tomorrow. Cloudy conditions will increase overnight and into tomorrow.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from eastern Edwards Plateau of Texas move to the southwest then loop towards the north moving up the Texas panhandle and through western Oklahoma and into southern Kansas. The trajectories show buoyant atmospheric conditions along the trajectory pathway. Weather conditions will be decent in the southern Edwards Plateau source ares, with temperatures in the 50s and sunny skies, but as they move towards the north temperatures will become colder. Conditions at the source sites will be cooler than yesterday and dry with moderate winds. High temperatures are expected in the upper 50s and low 60s across the region. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 30s depending upon the location. Tomorrow cloudy conditions will begin to build as a weather system moves towards the area.
OUTLOOK: *** Severe Threat today ***Mixed Conditions for Pollen Release Today. Sunny skies and low relative humidity, but much cooler temperatures than yesterday with moderate to light winds result in mixed conditions for pollen release. Conditions are better towards the southern populations compared to trees that are growing in northern Texas. The trees are nearing their peak release period so significant pollen release may be expected where conditions lead to release. Trajectory characteristics from each of the selected source sites on the Edwards Plateau show good conditions for entrainment and travel. The easterly trajectories are turned abruptly southward as cold air moves into the region. The trajectory characteristics suggest that significant amounts of pollen may be moved if available. The trajectory pathways show the winds moving towards west Texas, north towards the pan handle and then across western Oklahoma and into southern Kansas. With mixed conditions for release and good atmospheric characteristics a severe threat for entrainment and travel exists. The trajectories loop towards the north in west Texas thereby possibly affecting the communities from Midland to Amarillo, then western Oklahoma and potentially areas along the Oklahoma/Kansas border
Trajectory Start (s)
(shown by *
on map):
Junction, TX
Prepared by: Peter
K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience,
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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