The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 10 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Friday, January 10 TX/OK/AR: High pressure builds over central Texas today bringing sunny but cold conditions compared to yesterdays record setting highs across the region.  Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler with low relative humidity and moderate winds flowing clockwise over the Plateau.   In Texas, high temperatures will range from near 60 in the south to barely into the 50s in northern areas.  Sunny skies will predominate and dry conditions will last through the day but increasing humidity and cloudy conditions are expected tomorrow and Sunday.  The rotation of the high pressure over the area will dominate the wind patterns of the trajectories taking winds in the west and wrapping them around to the south and then eventually back north again.  Low temperatures overnight will see mid 30s to the south and near or below freezing conditions north of central Texas.  In Oklahoma, cold conditions are on tap for today with high temperatures only in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy and winds will be moderate from the northwest.  Cold, freezing temperatures overnight with readings in the low 20s to teens then similar conditions tomorrow.  Cloudy conditions will increase overnight and into tomorrow.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the south then west in a loop through central Arkansas and towards the border region of Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas. The trajectory characteristics show poor atmospheric conditions for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind with heavy sinking air along the trajectory pathway. In addition, conditions at the source site will be cold today with high temperatures only reaching the mid 30s.  Winds will be moderate to strong today from the north.  Overnight lows will be well below freezing and struggle to get above the freezing mark again tomorrow.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today*** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen Release.  Mostly sunny skies with low relative humidity and moderate winds but cold temperatures will result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.  The trajectories show good characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel but with poor climatic conditions there should be little release from the population.  The forecast conditions suggest that little pollen release can be expected.   For these reasons a low threat is forecast today.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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