The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

  

Date Issued: 10 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Friday, January 10 TX/OK/AR: High pressure builds over central Texas today bringing sunny but cold conditions compared to yesterdays record setting highs across the region.  Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler with low relative humidity and moderate winds flowing clockwise over the Plateau.   In Texas, high temperatures will range from near 60 in the south to barely into the 50s in northern areas.  Sunny skies will predominate and dry conditions will last through the day but increasing humidity and cloudy conditions are expected tomorrow and Sunday.  The rotation of the high pressure over the area will dominate the wind patterns of the trajectories taking winds in the west and wrapping them around to the south and then eventually back north again.  Low temperatures overnight will see mid 30s to the south and near or below freezing conditions north of central Texas.  In Oklahoma, cold conditions are on tap for today with high temperatures only in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy and winds will be moderate from the northwest.  Cold, freezing temperatures overnight with readings in the low 20s to teens then similar conditions tomorrow.  Cloudy conditions will increase overnight and into tomorrow.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the south then loop northward and move over western Oklahoma, across Kansas and into upper Missouri. The trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind.  However temperatures will be cold today with the highs only reaching the lower 40s.  Sunny skies today will become partly cloudy overnight and into tomorrow with increasing humidity levels and a slight chance of precipitation tomorrow.  Winds will be moderate today, tonight and tomorrow across the region.  Low temperatures overnight will be below freezing tonight and highs will once again struggle into the 40s tomorrow.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today *** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen release. Sunny skies and dry conditions but with temperatures striving to get into the mid 40s today result in poor conditions for pollen release within the Arbuckle Mountain population. The atmospheric conditions are good for downwind travel today but the cold conditions at the source site should restrain pollen release therefore there is a low threat of entrainment and downwind travel.  Some pollen may make it into the Oklahoma region from the winds sweeping northward from Texas (see the Texas forecast).  However, the trajectories will be very high in elevation by the time they pass over the region and will need to travel during the very cold and more humid nighttime period.  Therefore little pollen, if any, is expected to impact the Oklahoma area

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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