The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas / Fort Worth

Low/ Low

Austin

Low/ Low

San Antonio

Low/ Low

  

Date Issued: 11 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 11 and Sunday, January 12 TX/OK/AR: Winter returns this weekend as cold air and rain showers are expected across the region.  Partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will occur across south Texas as a weather system fuels rain showers across the southern Texas region spreading northward into eastern Texas.  High temperatures will just make it into the low 50s with moderate winds from the southeast.  Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s with cloudy conditions and high relative humidity with a chance of showers from Dallas southward.  On Sunday conditions begin to improve but cloudy conditions will be the rule across the region with a chance of showers developing towards the south again.  High temperatures will range from the low to upper 50s across the region and humidity will be relatively high.  In Oklahoma conditions on Saturday will be cloudy and cold as well but with sun breaks and potentially mostly sunny skies to the north.  Temperatures will be cold with highs expected in the mid 40s today and near or below freezing tonight.  Winds will be moderate and from the southeast.  Overnight clear skies will give way to mostly cloudy conditions with the high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s on Sunday.  Some showers may leak northward out of Texas into southern Oklahoma

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Texas move in a large loop towards the northwest and then back towards the east over the state of Oklahoma.  The trajectories show good atmospheric characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel away from the source regions.  However cold conditions, cloudy skies, and high humidity should dampen any pollen release from the area.  Significant rainfall is expected across the heaviest populations growing in the southern Edwards Plateau and cold conditions will greet the rest of the area of release today. Sunday:  Sunday conditions will continue to be cold with high temperatures across the region only in the 50s.  Cloudy conditions with high humidity will prevail during the day and a chance of showers developing is still in the forecast.  The trajectories from the western portion of the Edwards Plateau move towards the northeast on light winds whereas the trajectory from the Austin area moves initially west and then northeast.  The trajectory characteristics are initially good with buoyant conditions but are brought to ground level where they travel during Sunday evening

 

OUTLOOK: *** Saturday: Low Threat today***Unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. ***Sunday: Low Threat today ***Unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Cloudy skies, light rain, cold temperatures, and heightened humidity across the region today, especially to the south, result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release within the trees. The trajectory characteristics show good conditions for entrainment and travel today however because of the weather conditions little pollen release is expected therefore there is a low threat to downwind communities. Sunday:  On Sunday similar conditions will exist with cold temperatures, cloudy skies and high relative humidity therefore unfavorable conditions for pollen release.  Similarly, the trajectories initially begin with conditions that are conducive to the entrainment and travel of pollen but because of the conditions little is expected to be available therefore a low threat is forecast.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

Austin, TX

 

Junction, TX

 

San Angelo, TX

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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