The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 11 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 11 and Sunday, January 12 TX/OK/AR: Winter returns this weekend as cold air and rain showers are expected across the region.  Partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will occur across south Texas as a weather system fuels rain showers across the southern Texas region spreading northward into eastern Texas.  High temperatures will just make it into the low 50s with moderate winds from the southeast.  Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s with cloudy conditions and high relative humidity with a chance of showers from Dallas southward.  On Sunday conditions begin to improve but cloudy conditions will be the rule across the region with a chance of showers developing towards the south again.  High temperatures will range from the low to upper 50s across the region and humidity will be relatively high.  In Oklahoma conditions on Saturday will be cloudy and cold as well but with sun breaks and potentially mostly sunny skies to the north.  Temperatures will be cold with highs expected in the mid 40s today and near or below freezing tonight.  Winds will be moderate and from the southeast.  Overnight clear skies will give way to mostly cloudy conditions with the high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s on Sunday.  Some showers may leak northward out of Texas into southern Oklahoma

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains loop towards the southeast then back over Arkansas into southeastern Oklahoma.   The trajectory characteristics are good for entrainment and travel but little pollen release is expected.  Weather conditions over the Ozark Mountains will be cold with high temperatures in the mid 30s today, well below freezing tonight, and into the mid 30s tomorrow.  Sunny skies today will give way overnight to cloudy conditions that will continue tomorrow.  Winds will be light from the south to southeast both days. 

 

OUTLOOK: Saturday***Low Threat Today*** Unfavorable for Pollen Release Sunday: *** Low Threat Today*** Unfavorable for Pollen Release.  Conditions today and tomorrow will only reach the mid 30s with sunny skies today becoming cloudy overnight and increasing humidity.  These conditions result in poor conditions for pollen release and therefore unfavorable conditions.  The trajectories show good conditions for entrainment and travel but little pollen should be available from the source sites.  Therefore there is a low threat for both Saturday and Sunday. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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