The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 13 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Friday, January 13 TX/OK/AR: High pressure will build over central Texas today as the weather system that affected the area over the weekend moves to the east.  Across the region cloudy conditions with high humidity will occur this morning breaking into sunny but cool conditions this afternoon.  This is especially true in western Texas compared to eastern areas.  Temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s in areas that maintain the cloudiness whereas to the west the upper 50s can be expected.  Humidity will remain high as areas begin to dry out from the showers over the weekend.  Region wide winds will be from the southwest and light. Low temperatures overnight will be in the upper 30s to low 40s with warmer sunny conditions expected region wide on Tuesday.  High temperatures on Tuesday will return to the mid to low 60s region wide.  In Oklahoma, partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 50s will occur today, with heightened relative humidity and light winds from the southwest.  Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid 30s with light winds.  On Tuesday, conditions will improve to the south with sunny skies and warmer conditions.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 50s and dryer than today.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the east with the lowest elevation winds moving down the Mississippi River Valley.  The other wind heights move into the southeastern U.S. The trajectory characteristics show poor atmospheric conditions for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind at the lowest levels with sinking air along the trajectory pathway.  The other two trajectories show better conditions with some buoyant conditions along the pathway.  Conditions at the source site will be cold today with high temperatures only reaching the mid 40s and cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.  Winds will be light from the south to southwest.  Overnight lows will be below freezing and in the upper 40s on Tuesday.  Relative humidity will be above 50% today but drying some by tomorrow with only partly cloudy condtions.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today*** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen Release.  Partly cloudy skies with high relative humidity, light winds and cold temperatures will result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.  The trajectories show good characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel at the upper levels but poor conditions near ground level.  This coupled with poor climatic conditions should result in little pollen release from the population. For these reasons a low threat is forecast today.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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