The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

Date Issued: 15 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 15 TX/OK/AR: High pressure will be in control this morning centered over northern Louisiana but will slide towards the east to northeast during the day as a major winter storm heads out of the Rocky Mountains into the central plains.  The jet stream will move southward and cold air will drain southward lowering temperatures across the region starting this afternoon and into tomorrow.  Today, however clear skies but foggy conditions across Texas will be the norm this morning with clouds building towards the west this afternoon and cloudy conditions tonight and into tomorrow.  Winds overnight were light from the south to southeast bringing moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico, with a continued flow from the south to southeast the rest of the day but at moderate strength.  In Texas, foggy conditions are expected to lift by mid-morning to early afternoon depending on the location but humidity will remain relatively high, above 50% in most areas. Temperatures may reach seasonal normals with the mid 60s to the south and mid 50s to the north.  Areas to the west will be drier, but clouds will build in this afternoon sooner than towards the east.  Low temperatures overnight will be in the mid to upper 40s with similar conditions or even lower temperatures as highs during the day on Thursday.  Cloudy skies will prevail in Oklahoma, with high temperatures today in the low to mid 40s and increasing humidity as the winter weather passes just to the north.  How far south the storm track sags will determine if there will be significant snowfall in the area.  Early forecasts showed Tulsa and northeastern Oklahoma getting snow showers overnight and into tomorrow.  Temperatures overnight will be in the mid 30s to below freezing from south to north with little change for high temperatures on Thursday.  Moderate winds today from the southeast will switch to a northerly flow with conditions becoming strong overnight and into tomorrow.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the north across Oklahoma and into Kansas and then get caught into the weather system moving in from the west.  The trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind.  However, temperatures at the source site will be in the upper 40s most of today with cloudy conditions.  Winds will be moderate from the southeast, turning to a northerly flow overnight.  Tonight, lows will be in the mid 30s with tomorrows highs expected to be below freezing.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today *** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen release. Cloudy skies and cold temperatures result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release within the Arbuckle Mountain population. Atmospheric conditions are good for downwind travel today with the trajectories moving northward into Kansas.  However the poor conditions at the source site should dampen pollen release therefore a low threat exists today for significant pollen dispersal downwind. Conditions will continue to deteriorate tonight and into tomorrow as a major snowstorm moves across the central plains just north of Oklahoma.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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