The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 16 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 16 TX/OK/AR:  A winter storm will move across the Central Plains today bringing very windy conditions and cold temperatures to the region.  The Storm moved out of the Rocky Mountains overnight and into Kansas and Missouri bring snowfall to a wide region.  Northeastern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas can expect to see some snow flurries this morning.  To the south partly cloudy conditions, cold temperatures and very windy conditions will occur across southern Oklahoma and central Texas.  Winds will be from the north to northwest and above 20 miles per hour from Tulsa south to Austin Texas.  High temperatures today will range from the upper 20s in the Ozark Mountain region to the mid 30s in southern Oklahoma the 40s in the hill country of the Edwards Plateau and to the low 50s along the southern edge of the Plateau in Austin and San Antonio.  Relative humidity will be low as this cold dry air from the north dries the region out.  Overnight skies will clear and below freezing conditions can be expected across the entire region with lows in the lower teens to the north and low 30s to upper 20s to the south.   Temperatures will begin to warm on Friday as the current weather system moves into the southeast and eventually up the eastern seaboard. 

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the south, across Arkansas into the Mississippi River Valley and out over the Gulf of Mexico.  The trajectory characteristics are poor for pollen entrainment and travel from the source site as the heavy cold air moves at or near ground level for most of the distance.  Conditions at the source site will be cold today with high temperatures only reaching the mid 20s and with cloudy skies.  Winds will be strong from the north to northwest.  A potential for snow flurries exists today with skies clearing overnight and very cold temperatures, low teens.  Tomorrow conditions will begin to improve with some warming in store.   

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today*** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen Release.  Partly cloudy skies and cold temperatures will result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.  In addition, the trajectories show poor characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel downwind.  Because of the poor conditions at the source site pollen release is not expected.  Poor pollination conditions will persist into tomorrow as weather conditions continue to be very cold.  Therefore the poor climatic conditions result in a low threat for pollen dispersal being forecast today.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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