The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

  

Date Issued: 16 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 16 TX/OK/AR:  A winter storm will move across the Central Plains today bringing very windy conditions and cold temperatures to the region.  The Storm moved out of the Rocky Mountains overnight and into Kansas and Missouri bringing snowfall to a wide region.  Northeastern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas can expect to see some snow flurries this morning.  To the south partly cloudy conditions, cold temperatures and very windy conditions will occur across southern Oklahoma and central Texas.  Winds will be from the north to northwest and above 20 miles per hour from Tulsa south to Austin Texas.  High temperatures today will range from the upper 20s in the Ozark Mountain region to the mid 30s in southern Oklahoma the 40s in the hill country of the Edwards Plateau and to the low 50s along the southern edge of the Plateau in Austin and San Antonio.  Relative humidity will be low as this cold dry air from the north dries the region out.  Overnight skies will clear and below freezing conditions can be expected across the entire region with lows in the lower teens to the north and low 30s to upper 20s to the south.   Temperatures will begin to warm on Friday as the current weather system moves into the southeast and eventually up the eastern seaboard.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the south across central Texas and out into the Gulf of Mexico.  The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind with heavy cold air moving at ground level along the entire pathway.  In addition, temperatures at the source site will be cold today, only in the mid 30s with cloudy conditions and strong northerly winds. Tonight, lows will be in the lower 20s with some warming beginning tomorrows

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today *** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen release. Cloudy skies and cold temperatures result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release within the Arbuckle Mountain population. In addition, atmospheric conditions are poor for downwind travel today with the trajectories moving quickly at ground level through central Texas and into the Gulf of Mexico.  The poor conditions at the source site coupled with the poor atmospheric conditions results in low threat for significant pollen dispersal downwind. Conditions will be very cold overnight and then begin the warming process tomorrow. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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