The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 17 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Friday, January 17 TX/OK/AR:  A ridge of high pressure has built in after the winter storm moved towards the east bringing calm but cold conditions overnight.  Temperatures across the region were frigid with readings in the lower teens to the north into the lower 30s to the south.  Sunny to mostly sunny conditions are in store for the entire region today, but conditions will continue to be cold.  However, warmer conditions are on their way for the weekend as temperatures rebound into the upper 50s and low 60s by Sunday.  In Texas today, sunny to mostly sunny skies are in store but with high temperatures being from the mid 40s in the north to just over 50 degrees in the south.  Winds will be light to moderate and from the north in most areas but southerly breezes will occur along the western side of the Edwards Plateau.  Tonight temperatures will again be below freezing across the region then a 4 to 5 degree warm up is expected on Saturday.  In Oklahoma, temperatures will be very cold as most locations will struggle to get to the upper 30s today.  Winds will be light to moderate from the north and sunny skies will prevail.  Temperatures overnight will be in the mid 20s with a 4 to 5 degree warm-up in store for Saturday.  Winds will become moderate to strong and from the north to northwest on Saturday.

 

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the south into Arkansas then towards the east traveling along the ground as dense cold air moves through the area.  The trajectory characteristics are poor for pollen entrainment and travel from the source site as the heavy cold air moves at or near ground level for most of the distance.  Conditions at the source site will be cold today with high temperatures only reaching the mid to upper 20s and with sunny skies.  Winds will be moderate from the northwest.  Temperatures tonight will be in the low teens with clear skies and light winds.  Tomorrow conditions will begin to improve with some warming and high temperatures near 30.  

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today*** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen Release.  Partly cloudy skies and cold temperatures will result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.  In addition, the trajectories show poor characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel downwind.  Because of the poor conditions at the source site pollen release is not expected.  Poor pollination conditions will persist into tomorrow as weather conditions continue to be very cold.  Therefore the poor climatic conditions result in a low threat for pollen dispersal being forecast today.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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