The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

  

Date Issued: 17 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Friday, January 17 TX/OK/AR:  A ridge of high pressure has built in after the winter storm moved towards the east bringing calm but cold conditions overnight.  Temperatures across the region were frigid with readings in the lower teens to the north into the lower 30s to the south.  Sunny to mostly sunny conditions are in store for the entire region today, but conditions will continue to be cold.  However, warmer conditions are on their way for the weekend as temperatures rebound into the upper 50s and low 60s by Sunday.  In Texas today, sunny to mostly sunny skies are in store but with high temperatures being from the mid 40s in the north to just over 50 degrees in the south.  Winds will be light to moderate and from the north in most areas but southerly breezes will occur along the western side of the Edwards Plateau.  Tonight temperatures will again be below freezing across the region then a 4 to 5 degree warm up is expected on Saturday.  In Oklahoma, temperatures will be very cold as most locations will struggle to get to the upper 30s today.  Winds will be light to moderate from the north and sunny skies will prevail.  Temperatures overnight will be in the mid 20s with a 4 to 5 degree warm-up in store for Saturday.  Winds will become moderate to strong and from the north to northwest on Saturday.

 

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the east across northern Texas and the Oklahoma border region then eastward towards the Atlantic coast.  The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind with heavy cold air moving at ground level along the entire pathway.  In addition, temperatures at the source site will be cold today, barely getting to 40 for a high with sunny conditions and moderate northerly winds. Tonight, lows will be in the upper 20s with warming beginning tomorrow.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today *** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen release. Mostly sunny skies but cold temperatures result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release within the Arbuckle Mountain population.  High temperatures today will struggle to get into the 40s. In addition, atmospheric conditions are poor for downwind travel today with the trajectories moving quickly at ground level towards the east along the Texas-Oklahoma border then across the Mississippi river valley towards the southeastern states.  The poor conditions at the source site coupled with the poor atmospheric conditions results in low threat for significant pollen dispersal downwind. Conditions will be very cold overnight and then begin the warming process tomorrow. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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