The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 18 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 18 and Sunday, January 19 TX/OK/AR: High pressure has moved in across the region but with cold temperatures only beginning to moderate.  Clear skies will occur over much of Texas today and tomorrow.  Today winds from the north to northwest will be moderate to strong from southern to northern Texas.  The current jet stream is positioned over southern Oklahoma and Northern Texas so those areas will see very windy conditions today and moderately gusty conditions tomorrow.  Wind direction will shift tomorrow coming from the west to southwest.  Temperatures across Texas will remain cold today with regional conditions below the mid 50s and northern Texas only reaching the high 40s.  Tomorrow will be warmer as high temperatures rebound by 5 to 10 degrees depending on your location.  The cold air is also dry resulting in low relative humidity conditions both days.  Overnight low temperatures will be in the 30s with below freezing conditions on the Plateau and to the west.  In Oklahoma, a weather system is building over the Ozark Mountains but will move to the east during the day.  There is a slight possibility for some backside precipitation in eastern Oklahoma.  Temperatures will be cold today with highs only in the 40s and lows tonight well below freezing.  Winds will be moderate to strong today and tomorrow from the northwest switching to a southwesterly flow overnight and into tomorrow.  Sunny and clear skies will occur in southern Oklahoma with partly cloudy  skies both days to in northeastern Oklahoma and over the Ozark Mountains.  As in Texas temperatures will ameliorate on Sunday with a 5 to 10 degree or greater warm-up during the two periods.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains loop towards the southeast then northeastward towards the Ohio River valley. The trajectory characteristics are poor for entrainment and travel with heavy cold air moving along the ground. Weather conditions over the Ozark Mountains will be frigid with high temperatures below freezing today, into the teens overnight, and into the mid 30s tomorrow.  There is a potential for snow flurries this morning but then skies should clear  and sunny conditions occur tomorrow.  Winds are moderate today from the north to northwest.  Sunday: On Sunday sunny skies will occur but temperatures will onlyreach the mid 30s. Winds will be moderate but from the south to southwest.  The air mass trajectories move towards the east along the Missouri and Arkansas border then towards the Ohio River Valley.  The upper elevations winds show good buoyancy but the lowest elevation trajectory moves along the ground surface resulting in poor conditions for long-distant travel 

 

OUTLOOK: Saturday***Low Threat Today*** Unfavorable for Pollen Release Sunday: *** Low Threat Today*** Unfavorable for Pollen Release.  Conditions today and tomorrow will be mired in the 30s with the potential of flurries today then clearing skies.  Conditions will be very cold overnight.  These conditions result in poor conditions for pollen release and therefore unfavorable conditions.  The trajectories show good conditions for entrainment and travel but little pollen should be available from the source sites.  Therefore there is a low threat for both Saturday and Sunday. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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