The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

  

Date Issued: 18, January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 18 and Sunday, January 19 TX/OK/AR: High pressure has moved in across the region but with cold temperatures only beginning to moderate.  Clear skies will occur over much of Texas today and tomorrow.  Today winds from the north to northwest will be moderate to strong from southern to northern Texas.  The current jet stream is positioned over southern Oklahoma and Northern Texas so those areas will see very windy conditions today and moderately gusty conditions tomorrow.  Wind direction will shift tomorrow coming from the west to southwest.  Temperatures across Texas will remain cold today with regional conditions below the mid 50s and northern Texas only reaching the high 40s.  Tomorrow will be warmer as high temperatures rebound by 5 to 10 degrees depending on your location.  The cold air is also dry resulting in low relative humidity conditions both days.  Overnight low temperatures will be in the 30s with below freezing conditions on the Plateau and to the west.  In Oklahoma, a weather system is building over the Ozark Mountains but will move to the east during the day.  There is a slight possibility for some backside precipitation in eastern Oklahoma.  Temperatures will be cold today with highs only in the 40s and lows tonight well below freezing.  Winds will be moderate to strong today and tomorrow from the northwest switching to a southwesterly flow overnight and into tomorrow.  Sunny and clear skies will occur in southern Oklahoma with partly cloudy  skies both days to in northeastern Oklahoma and over the Ozark Mountains.  As in Texas temperatures will ameliorate on Sunday with a 5 to 10 degree or greater warm-up during the two periods.

 

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move eastward along the Oklahoma and Texas border then northeast across Arkansas and into the Ohio River valley.  The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel with sinking atmospheric conditions.   Clear skies but cold temperatures will prevail at the source site with high temperatures reaching the mid to low 40s today.  Moderate to strong winds from the west to northwest are on tap for today as well.  Overnight clear skies will drop temperatures just below freezing. Sunday: Sunny skies will prevail with dry conditions and moderate winds from the west to northwest.  High temperatures will be in the low 50s.  The trajectories show movement to the northeast across northeastern Oklahoma, central Missouri and points eastward.  Trajectory characteristics are good for pollen entrainment and travel but only mixed conditions for release is expected at the source site.

 

OUTLOOK: Saturday: ***Low to Moderate Threat today***Mixed Conditions for Pollen release. Sunday: *** Moderate Threat today***Mixed to Favorable Conditions for Pollen release.   Conditions in the Arbuckle Mountains will be cold with temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s today and mid 50s tomorrow.  Moderate to strong winds from the north to northwest are expected on Saturday with southerly winds on Sunday.  These characteristics will result in unfavorable to mixed conditions for pollen release today, but mixed conditions to favorable conditions tomorrow as temperatures warm.  The trees have passed their pollination peak therefore the amount of pollen available for dispersal should be declining.  Poor characteristics for entrainment and travel exist for travel as well as at the sites therefore little pollen release is expected, and a low threat exists. Sunday:  The air mass trajectories show better conditions but temperatures will just get into the range where significant release might be expected.  Because of the overall cold temperatures and freezing conditions again a low threat for downwind travel of pollen is forecast today and moderate tomorrow.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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