The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

  

Date Issued: 20 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Monday, January 20 TX/OK/AR:  Calm conditions will be the rule today across the entire region as a large high pressure system centered over the Gulf of Mexico influences most of the weather.  Warm conditions will be the rule with temperatures well above normal and light to moderate winds across the region.  In Texas high temperatures will be in the 70s as far north as Dallas as warm air is brought up from the Gulf of Mexico on south to southwesterly breezes.  Humidity will be high to the east and lower towards the west.  The skies should be mostly sunny to partly cloudy but with little chance of precipitation.  Overnight the trend of above normal temperatures will continue with the lows in the upper 30s to the west and only declining into the 50s to the east.  Winds will be moderate throughout the night with a shift towards north to northwesterly direction as far south Waco.  To the south breezes maintain a southwesterly direction.  On Tuesday high temperatures north of the wind change will drop by 7 to 10 degrees whereas to the south conditions similar to those on Monday will exist.  Winds will return to a southwesterly direction during the day blowing moderately across the region.  Skies will be partly cloudy.  In Oklahoma, todays temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s across the region with mostly sunny skies and moderate to light winds from the south to southwest.  Humidity will be low with an overall drying trend.  Overnight the temperatures will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s depending on the location.  Winds will switch to primarily coming from the north to northeast but will stay light to moderate.  On Tuesday high temperatures will drop by 5 to 10 degrees as cooler air is pushed into the region.  Winds will be moderate from the north to northeast throughout the day.  

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Texas sites all show a general northeasterly trend that is turned back southward during the evening as the wind change occurs across the region.  The trajectories move from a mainly northeasterly direction to a southeasterly track traveling over eastern Texas and out over the Gulf of Mexico.  The lowest level winds show the poorest conditions for entrainment and travel moving at the ground surface on their track towards the northeast, but once they begin their move back towards the southeast the become more buoyant.  The upper elevation trajectories overall show better conditions with the mid elevation tracking the lower elevation pathway.  The uppermost trajectory become incorporated in the jet stream and moves rapidly towards the east coast.  Temperatures across the region will be warm today with highs approaching or exceeding 70 in many locations.  Moderate temperatures are expected overnight in most areas.  Winds will be light to moderate overnight from the south to southwest today, switching overnight as described above.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today ***Favorable Conditions for Pollen Release Today.   Mostly sunny skies this morning, but with high humidity on the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  Temperatures will be above seasonal levels with many locations getting above 70.  For these reasons favorable conditions for pollen release are forecast. Trajectory characteristics from the source sites on the Edwards Plateau show initially poor conditions at the ground surface that become more buoyant overnight and tomorrow.  For this reason a moderate threat is forecast today.  In the populations where pollen is released it may be difficult for it to build to significant levels because of the atmospheric conditions.  If it does occur then the Dallas/Ft.Worth area and regions to the east may see significant amounts.  We are nearing the end of the pollination season so today and tomorrow will be a good test as to how much pollen is left to be dispersed..

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

Austin, TX

 

 

Junction, TX

 

 

San Angelo, TX

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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