The
Mountain
Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued:
Mountain Cedar Location(s):
Regional Weather: Monday, January 20 TX/OK/AR: Calm conditions will be the rule today across the entire region as a large high pressure system centered over the Gulf of Mexico influences most of the weather. Warm conditions will be the rule with temperatures well above normal and light to moderate winds across the region. In Texas high temperatures will be in the 70s as far north as Dallas as warm air is brought up from the Gulf of Mexico on south to southwesterly breezes. Humidity will be high to the east and lower towards the west. The skies should be mostly sunny to partly cloudy but with little chance of precipitation. Overnight the trend of above normal temperatures will continue with the lows in the upper 30s to the west and only declining into the 50s to the east. Winds will be moderate throughout the night with a shift towards north to northwesterly direction as far south Waco. To the south breezes maintain a southwesterly direction. On Tuesday high temperatures north of the wind change will drop by 7 to 10 degrees whereas to the south conditions similar to those on Monday will exist. Winds will return to a southwesterly direction during the day blowing moderately across the region. Skies will be partly cloudy. In Oklahoma, todays temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s across the region with mostly sunny skies and moderate to light winds from the south to southwest. Humidity will be low with an overall drying trend. Overnight the temperatures will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s depending on the location. Winds will switch to primarily coming from the north to northeast but will stay light to moderate. On Tuesday high temperatures will drop by 5 to 10 degrees as cooler air is pushed into the region. Winds will be moderate from the north to northeast throughout the day.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from
the
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat Today*** Mixed Conditions for Pollen Release. Sunny skies with dry conditions but temperatures that will just get into the 50s result in mixed conditions for pollen release today. The trajectories show good characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel downwind. However, because of the mixed conditions at the source site significant amounts of pollen release is not expected. In addition, the trees are nearing the end of the pollination season and the amount of pollen left to be dispersed is unknown at the time. If some pollen is released the nearest population center to be affected will be the Tulsa region. Therefore there is a moderate threat to the area. Poor pollination conditions will return tomorrow as weather conditions deteriorate to colder conditions. Therefore the mixed climatic conditions result in a moderate threat for pollen dispersal being forecast today.
Trajectory Start (s)
(shown by black star
on map):
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences,
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
Return to Forecasting Home Page