The
Mountain
Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
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Low |
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Moderate |
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Moderate |
Date Issued:
Mountain Cedar Location(s):
Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 21 TX/OK/AR: Conditions will again be warm today in southern Texas but a front carrying much cooler air will push into the northern regions. In northern Texas temperatures will drop by 7 to 10 degrees today with moderate winds shifting and coming from the north. Clear skies this morning will see some build up this afternoon going into this evening so expect partly cloudy skies with mostly cloudy skies tonight and tomorrow. Humidity is on the rise with levels above 50% expected tomorrow. Overnight temperatures will be in the 30s. To the south warmer conditions will exist with high temperatures south of a line drawn from Waco to San Angelo will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s around San Antonio. Wind will be light from the west to northwest with relatively dry conditions but with increasing humidity overnight. Nighttime temperatures will be mild and in the 40s with the highs tomorrow cooling by 7 to 10 degrees. To the north, Oklahoma will see a substantial cool down today as cooler air pushes into the region from the northeast. High temperatures across the region will stay in the mid 40s with moderate winds from the north to northeast and cloudy skies. Temperatures overnight will be below freezing. Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday that occurred today.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Texas sites all show a differentiation between the lowest versus the mid-level and upper-level trajectories. The lower level pathway moves towards the east then turn southwestward with the Austin and San Angelo winds moving directly south. The lower and mid-level winds from Junction loop southwestward over the southern Plateau region and into Mexico. The mid- and upper-level winds at Austin and San Angelo along with the upper most trajectory from Junction are caught in the jet stream and move rapidly toward the east coast. All of the trajectories show good conditions for entrainment and travel except for the lowest winds moving from junction that travel at the ground surface. Temperatures across the region will be warm today with highs in the 60s and 70s. Cooler temperatures are expected in the northern areas of the plateau. Moderate temperatures are expected overnight in most areas.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today ***Favorable Conditions for Pollen Release Today. Mostly sunny skies this morning, but with humidity increasing and partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Temperatures will be above seasonal levels in the southern plateau region with cooler conditions to the north. For these reasons favorable conditions for pollen release are forecast. However, we are nearing the end of the pollination season and the amount of pollen to be dispersed is declining. The very good conditions yesterday did not lead to significant amounts of pollen being reported which leads us to believe that the amount of unopened cones on the trees is small. Trajectory characteristics from the source sites on the Edwards Plateau show good conditions at the ground surface except for Junction. At the upper levels the jet stream quickly carries the air masses away from the area. We are forecasting a moderate threat to local areas but do not expect significant amounts of pollen in the atmosphere. Areas affected would be to the south and southwest of the Edwards Plateau. Cooler temperatures in the northern population should dampen release of any cones that are left.
Trajectory Start (s)
(shown by *
on map):
Junction, TX
Prepared by: Peter
K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience,
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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