The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 21 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 21 TX/OK/AR:  Conditions will again be warm today in southern Texas but a front carrying much cooler air will push into the northern regions.  In northern Texas temperatures will drop by 7 to 10 degrees today with moderate winds shifting and coming from the north.  Clear skies this morning will see some build up this afternoon going into this evening so expect partly cloudy skies with mostly cloudy skies tonight and tomorrow.  Humidity is on the rise with levels above 50% expected tomorrow.  Overnight temperatures will be in the 30s.  To the south warmer conditions will exist with high temperatures south of a line drawn from Waco to San Angelo will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s around San Antonio.  Wind will be light from the west to northwest with relatively dry conditions but  with increasing humidity overnight.  Nighttime temperatures will be mild and in the 40s with the highs tomorrow cooling by 7 to 10 degrees.    To the north, Oklahoma will see a substantial cool down today as cooler air pushes into the region from the northeast.  High temperatures across the region will stay in the mid 40s with moderate winds from the north to northeast and cloudy skies.  Temperatures overnight will be below freezing.  Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday that occurred today.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the southwest across eastern Oklahoma and through central Texas.  However, the trajectory characteristics are poor for pollen entrainment and travel from the source site  as they exhibit heavy sinking atmospheric conditions along the pathway.  Conditions at the source site will be cold today with high temperatures in the mid 30s with mostly cloudy skies moderate humidity conditions.  Winds will be in the low 20s and again reach the mid 30s for a high on Wednesday.  Skies will remain mostly to partly cloudy with light to moderate winds from the east overnight and into tomorrow. 

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today*** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen Release.  Cloudy skies, moderate humidity levels and cold temperatures with high readings in the mid 30s result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.  In addition, the trajectories show poor characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel downwind.  The trees are nearing the end of the pollination season and the amount of pollen left to be dispersed is unknown at the time, but because of the conditions no pollen dispersal is expected.  Similar conditions are expected tomorrow.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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