The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

 

Date Issued: 21 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 21 TX/OK/AR:  Conditions will again be warm today in southern Texas but a front carrying much cooler air will push into the northern regions.  In northern Texas temperatures will drop by 7 to 10 degrees today with moderate winds shifting and coming from the north.  Clear skies this morning will see some build up this afternoon going into this evening so expect partly cloudy skies with mostly cloudy skies tonight and tomorrow.  Humidity is on the rise with levels above 50% expected tomorrow.  Overnight temperatures will be in the 30s.  To the south warmer conditions will exist with high temperatures south of a line drawn from Waco to San Angelo will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s around San Antonio.  Wind will be light from the west to northwest with relatively dry conditions but  with increasing humidity overnight.  Nighttime temperatures will be mild and in the 40s with the highs tomorrow cooling by 7 to 10 degrees.    To the north, Oklahoma will see a substantial cool down today as cooler air pushes into the region from the northeast.  High temperatures across the region will stay in the mid 40s with moderate winds from the north to northeast and cloudy skies.  Temperatures overnight will be below freezing.  Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday that occurred today.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the south on northerly winds across central Texas. The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind with heavy cool air moving along the ground as the air mass travels.  Temperatures at the source site will be cool today, with highs just in the upper 40s and partly cloudy skies.  Winds will be from the north to northeast and moderate.  The humidity will be relatively high today.  Overnight temperatures will be around freezing  with cloudy skies and light to moderate winds from the north.  On Wednesday temperatures will be similar but the skies will be cloudy and winds will switch with light to moderate conditions from the east

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today *** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen release. Partly cloudy skies, cool temperatures and high humidity result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release within the Arbuckle Mountain population.  High temperatures today will only reach the upper 40s.  The trajectories show poor atmospheric conditions for entrainment and travel with the pathway moving southward through central Texas. The trees should be nearing the end of their pollination season so the amount of pollen left to be dispersed is trailing off.  The poor conditions at the source site lead to a low threat for downwind entrainment and travel of pollen today

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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