The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

  

Date Issued: 22 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 22 TX/OK/AR:  Conditions across the forecast region will be influenced by the current push of arctic air coming from the north.  Partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will occur across the region today with cold to cool temperatures as far south as Austin and Junction, Texas.  Todays highs will be in the mid 30s around Dallas to just getting into the 50s on the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  Winds will be from the north to northeast and light to moderate.  Higher humidity will also be present region wide with partly cloudy to cloudy skies.  Overnight temperatures will get cold with lows on the Plateau in the mid 20s and only those locations along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau staying above freezing.  Similar conditions will return on Thursday, as very little amelioration of conditions is expected.  To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures today will stay in the 20s with cloudy conditions and moderate winds out of the north to northeast.  Temperatures overnight will dip into the teens then return to similarly chilly conditions on Thursday.  

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Texas sites show initial movement towards the southwest, then loop towards the north over the time period.  Atmospheric conditions initially appear relatively stable but overnight become buoyant producing rising conditions.  All of the trajectories show good conditions for entrainment and travel for the next 48 hours. However, temperatures across the region will be cold with highs expected only in the 40s today.  Winds will be light to moderate from the north to northeast.  The skies will be cloudy and humidity levels will be high across the region.  Overnight temperatures will be in the teens and low twenties resulting in a hard freeze for most regions of the Plateau.  Similar conditions will return on Thursday with cold temperatures and moderate winds continuing from the north to northeast.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today ***Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen Release Today.   Partly cloudy skies today with high humidity and cold temperatures across the region will result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.  High temperatures will be in he mid 30s in north Texas and barely reaching 50 along the southern Edwards Plateau.   In addition, we are nearing the end of the pollination season and the amount of pollen to be dispersed is declining.  The very good conditions yesterday did not lead to significant amounts of pollen being reported which leads us to believe that the amount of unopened cones on the trees is small.  Trajectory characteristics from the source sites on the Edwards Plateau show good conditions for entrainment and travel.  However with the lack of pollen available for entrainment a low threat to downwind communities exists today.   Conditions are not expected to improve tomorrow.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

Austin, TX

 

 

Junction, TX

 

 

San Angelo, TX

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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