The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 22 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 22 TX/OK/AR:  Conditions across the forecast region will be influenced by the current push of arctic air coming from the north.  Partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will occur across the region today with cold to cool temperatures as far south as Austin and Junction, Texas.  Todays highs will be in the mid 30s around Dallas to just getting into the 50s on the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  Winds will be from the north to northeast and light to moderate.  Higher humidity will also be present region wide with partly cloudy to cloudy skies.  Overnight temperatures will get cold with lows on the Plateau in the mid 20s and only those locations along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau staying above freezing.  Similar conditions will return on Thursday, as very little amelioration of conditions is expected.  To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures today will stay in the 20s with cloudy conditions and moderate winds out of the north to northeast.  Temperatures overnight will dip into the teens then return to similarly chilly conditions on Thursday.  

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move south to ssouthwest across Arkansas and east central Texas.  The air mass trajectories show initial characteristics of stable conditions but begin to sink overnight and stay at ground level throughout tomorrow. Conditions at the source site will be cold today with high temperatures not reaching the 30s with mostly cloudy skies moderate humidity conditions.  Winds will be moderate to strong from the north to northeast.  Overnight frigid temperatures will reach into the single digits.  On Thursday high temperatures will be even colder perhaps staying in the teens with partly cloudy skies and a 20% chance of precipitation.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today*** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen Release.  Cloudy skies, moderate humidity levels and very cold temperatures with the highs remaining below freezing result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.  In addition, the trajectories show poor characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel downwind.  The trees are nearing the end of the pollination season and the amount of pollen to be dispersed is unknown at this time, but because of the conditions no pollen dispersal is expected.  Similar conditions are expected tomorrow.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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