The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

  

Date Issued: 22 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 22 TX/OK/AR:  Conditions across the forecast region will be influenced by the current push of arctic air coming from the north.  Partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will occur across the region today with cold to cool temperatures as far south as Austin and Junction, Texas.  Todays highs will be in the mid 30s around Dallas to just getting into the 50s on the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  Winds will be from the north to northeast and light to moderate.  Higher humidity will also be present region wide with partly cloudy to cloudy skies.  Overnight temperatures will get cold with lows on the Plateau in the mid 20s and only those locations along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau staying above freezing.  Similar conditions will return on Thursday, as very little amelioration of conditions is expected.  To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures today will stay in the 20s with cloudy conditions and moderate winds out of the north to northeast.  Temperatures overnight will dip into the teens then return to similarly chilly conditions on Thursday.  

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the south then loop towards the west south of San Antonio.  The trajectories initially show stable atmospheric conditions but then  begin to sink to the surface where they move until well away from the area.  This results in poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind.  Temperatures at the source site will be cold today, with highs near freezing, cloudy skies, high humidity and light to moderate winds from the northeast.  Overnight temperatures will be in the low teens to single digits with mostly cloudy skies and light to moderate winds from the north to northeast.  On Thursday conditions will be similar with cold temperatures, partly cloudy skies and moderate to light winds.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today *** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen release. Partly cloudy skies, cold temperatures and high humidity result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release within the Arbuckle Mountain population.  High temperatures today will only reach into the 30s.  The trajectories show poor atmospheric conditions for entrainment and travel with the pathway moving southward through central Texas. The trees should be nearing the end of their pollination season so the amount of pollen left to be dispersed is trailing off.  The poor weather conditions at the source site lead to a low threat for downwind entrainment and travel of pollen today

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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