The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 23 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 23 TX/OK/AR:  Conditions across the forecast region will be influenced by the current push of arctic air coming from the north.  Partly cloudy to mostlycloudy conditions will occur across the region today with cold temperatures as far south as San Antonio, Texas.  Todays highs will be in the low 30s around Dallas to the low 40s on the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  Winds will be from the north to northeast and light and moderate resulting in even colder wind chill conditions.  Skies will be partly cloudy to cloudy over the region.  Overnight temperatures will get cold with lows on the Plateau in the mid 20s and including locations along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  Similar conditions will return on Friday, with some little amelioration of conditions expected.  To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures today will stay in the 20s with cloudy conditions and moderate winds out of the north to northeast.  Temperatures overnight will dip into the teens then return to similarly chilly conditions on Friday.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move south into Arkansas then loops towards the north to northeast over Missouri.  The air mass trajectories show stable conditions with the lowest elevation winds stay at ground level throughout tomorrow. Conditions at the source site will be cold today with high temperatures in the teens and mostly cloudy skies.  Winds will be moderate from the north to northeast.  Overnight frigid temperatures will reach into the single digits.  On Friday high temperatures will rebound into the 20s with the winds blowing from the south to southwest.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today*** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen Release.  Cloudy skies, moderate humidity levels and very cold temperatures with the highs remaining well below freezing result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.  In addition, the trajectories show poor characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel downwind.  The trees are nearing the end of the pollination season and the amount of pollen to be dispersed is unknown at this time, but because of the conditions no pollen dispersal is expected therefore a low threat exists.  Similar conditions are expected tomorrow.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page