The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

 

Date Issued: 23 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 23 TX/OK/AR:  Conditions across the forecast region will be influenced by the current push of arctic air coming from the north.  Partly cloudy to mostlycloudy conditions will occur across the region today with cold temperatures as far south as San Antonio, Texas.  Todays highs will be in the low 30s around Dallas to the low 40s on the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  Winds will be from the north to northeast and light and moderate resulting in even colder wind chill conditions.  Skies will be partly cloudy to cloudy over the region.  Overnight temperatures will get cold with lows on the Plateau in the mid 20s and including locations along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  Similar conditions will return on Friday, with some little amelioration of conditions expected.  To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures today will stay in the 20s with cloudy conditions and moderate winds out of the north to northeast.  Temperatures overnight will dip into the teens then return to similarly chilly conditions on Friday.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the south then loop back northward over Oklahoma.  The trajectories show stable atmospheric conditions during their pathway and results in good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind.  Temperatures at the source site will be cold today, with highs only in the 20s, cloudy skies and light to moderate winds from the northeast.  Overnight temperatures will be in the low teens to single digits with mostly cloudy skies and light to moderate winds from the south to southeast.  On Friday conditions will be similar with some amelioration of temperatures, but partly cloudy skies and moderate to light winds.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today *** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen release. Partly cloudy skies, cold temperatures and high humidity result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release within the Arbuckle Mountain population.  High temperatures today will be in the 20s.  The trajectories show good atmospheric conditions for entrainment and travel with the pathway looping southward over Texas then back across western Oklahoma. The trees should be nearing the end of their pollination season so the amount of pollen left to be dispersed is trailing off.  The poor weather conditions at the source site lead to a low threat for downwind entrainment and travel of pollen today

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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