The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

Date Issued: 25, January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 25 and Sunday, January 26 TX/OK/AR: High pressure has moved to the east of the region bringing warmer air and alleviating some of the cold conditions.  The southerly flow will bring increased humidity and cloudy skies across much of the region.  Temperatures in Texas will rebound nicely with highs near or just above 50 degrees across the state.  Humidity levels will be well above 50 percent across the region especially towards the eastern sections of central Texas.  There is a slight chance of a few scattered sprinkles but not much more.  Winds will be from the south to southeast and moderate. Overnight temperatures will be cool but mild compared to last week with lows across the region staying in the 40s.  Winds will switch direction and be from the north to northeast but light. Tomorrow will be warmer as high temperatures rebound by up to 5 degrees depending on your location.  The atmosphere will dry out some with lower humidity levels occurring on the western side of the Plateau.  Winds will eventually back to a south to southwestern flow staying moderate.  In Oklahoma, warming will occur today bringing the high temperatures into the upper 40s however skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of some sprinkles over the region.  Winds will be moderate to strong from the south.  Overnight, temperatures will dip towards freezing as the winds switch to a north to northwesterly flow.  Winds will be light to moderate.   Sunday will continue to see cloudy skies with a slight chance of precipitation and a 5 to 10 degree cool down from Saturday. Highs are expected only in the upper 30s to low 40s.  Strong winds will occur from the north.

 

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move northeastward towards the Tulsa region then shift to the southeast moving across Arkansas out towards the Gulf of Mexico.  The trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel with rising atmospheric conditions.   However, partly cloudy skies and cold conditions will prevail with the high at the source site only expected to reach the upper 40s today.  Last night temperatures were well within the mid 20s.  Winds will be moderate from the south with a slight chance for sprinkles.  Overnight temperatures will be in the mid to low 30s with light winds from the north to northwest. Sunday: Partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will prevail on Sunday with a greater chance of precipitation across the region.  Winds will be strong from the north. High temperatures will be in the mid 40s to the south and upper 30s to the north.  The trajectories show movement to the west then looping northward across western Oklahoma.  Trajectory characteristics are good for pollen entrainment and travel but poor conditions for release is expected at the source site.

 

OUTLOOK: Saturday: ***Low Threat today***Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen release. Sunday: *** Low Threat today***Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen release.   Conditions in the Arbuckle Mountains will be cold with temperatures in the low to mid 40s today and tomorrow.  Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions can be expected both days.  These characteristics result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow.  In addition, the trees are nearing the end of their pollination therefore the amount of pollen available for dispersal should be small.  Good characteristics for entrainment and travel exist, however poor conditions for release results in little pollen release expected, and a low threat existing. Sunday:  Similar conditions will occur on Sunday but with even cooler temperatures, strong winds and higher humidity therefore a low threat for downwind pollen travel is forecast.  Note that there is a moderate threat on Sunday for both Oklahoma City and Tulsa from the Texas trajectories.  See the Texas forecast for more details.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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