The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

Date Issued: 27 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Monday, January 27 TX/OK/AR:  Calm conditions will exist across the region as the last push of cold air will be mediated and warmer conditions will build for the next couple of days.  Warmer temperatures are expected region wide with mostly sunny to sunny skies and lowered humidity.  In Texas temperatures will warm up from cool conditions overnight into the upper 40s by noon and into the 60s by this afternoon.   Skies will be mostly sunny to sunny today with light to moderate winds from the south to southwest. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.  Humidity is on the rise with more humid warm conditions expected on Tuesday.  To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 50s across the region.  Sunny skies with low to moderate humidity readings are expected.  Winds will be moderate from the south to southwest.  Overnight temperatures will return to the upper 30s with increasing cloud cover.   Winds will be light to moderate from the south.  On Tuesday warm humid conditions will extend northward from Texas resulting in a slight chance of rain in northeastern Oklahoma.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the east side of the Edwards Plateau move to the north sweeping over central to northeastern Oklahoma then turn toward the northeast over Missouri and north of the Ohio River Valley. The trajectories from the western side of the source region show a similar tracking towards the north but then are turned back to the south by a wind shift tomorrow.  All of the trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel with rising atmospheric conditions. Temperatures across the region will warm into the 60s today making conditions good for pollen release from any cones that are left on the trees. Skies will be clear and sunny across the region with moderate humidity readings and light to moderate winds from the south.  Overnight temperatures will only dip into the upper 40s but humidity will be on the rise with cloudy to partly cloudy skies and winds picking up to moderate levels from the south to southwest.   

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat today *** Mixed Conditions for Pollen Release Today.   Mostly sunny skies today with warm temperatures in the western regions of the the Plateau and fog, mist, and drizzle in the eastern areas will result in mixed conditions for pollen release across the plateau.  High temperatures will be in the 50s across the region.  We are nearing the end of the pollination season and the amount of pollen to be dispersed is declining to low levels.  Recent good conditions did not lead to significant amounts of pollen being reported which leads us to believe that the amount of unopened cones in the populations is small.  Therefore the potential amount of pollen in the atmosphere should not be significant.  However, high levels of pollen to the east suggests that the eastern red cedar may be beginning its pollen cycle which could contribute pollen grains that are indistinguishable in the atmosphere, but this pollen is believed to be less allergenic. Conditions are expected to deteriorate tomorrow with warmer temperatures but much higher humidity.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

Austin, TX

 

 

Junction, TX

 

 

San Angelo, TX

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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