The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast



Date Issued: 27 January 2003


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO


Regional Weather: Monday, January 27 TX/OK/AR:  Calm conditions will exist across the region as the last push of cold air will be mediated and warmer conditions will build for the next couple of days.  Warmer temperatures are expected region wide with mostly sunny to sunny skies and lowered humidity.  In Texas temperatures will warm up from cool conditions overnight into the upper 40s by noon and into the 60s by this afternoon.   Skies will be mostly sunny to sunny today with light to moderate winds from the south to southwest. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.  Humidity is on the rise with more humid warm conditions expected on Tuesday.  To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 50s across the region.  Sunny skies with low to moderate humidity readings are expected.  Winds will be moderate from the south to southwest.  Overnight temperatures will return to the upper 30s with increasing cloud cover.   Winds will be light to moderate from the south.  On Tuesday warm humid conditions will extend northward from Texas resulting in a slight chance of rain in northeastern Oklahoma.


Trajectory Weather: The no air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the northeast across Missouri and the upper elevations along the southern edge of the Great Lakes.  The lower elevation air mass turns over northeastern Missouri towards the southeast as wind directions change at the lower levels.   Conditions for entrainment and travel are good with buoyant atmospheric conditions. However, temperatures across the region will remain cold for pollen release with highs expected near 40 today.  Winds will be moderate from the south.  Skies will be mostly sunny but increasing cloudiness will occur overnight and into tomorrow.  Lows overnight will be just below freezing with similar conditions expected tomorrow.   


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today*** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen Release.  Mostly sunny skies, with moderate humidity levels but cool temperatures result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. The trajectories show good conditions fro entrainment and travel but without a source supply result in a low threat for downwind dispersal.  In addition, the trees should be nearing the end of their pollination season so the amount of pollen left to be dispersed is trailing off. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR



 Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


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