The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast



Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low to Moderate


Low to Moderate

St. Louis MO




Date Issued: 27 January 2003


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Monday, January 27 TX/OK/AR:  Calm conditions will exist across the region as the last push of cold air will be mediated and warmer conditions will build for the next couple of days.  Warmer temperatures are expected region wide with mostly sunny to sunny skies and lowered humidity.  In Texas temperatures will warm up from cool conditions overnight into the upper 40s by noon and into the 60s by this afternoon.   Skies will be mostly sunny to sunny today with light to moderate winds from the south to southwest. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.  Humidity is on the rise with more humid warm conditions expected on Tuesday.  To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 50s across the region.  Sunny skies with low to moderate humidity readings are expected.  Winds will be moderate from the south to southwest.  Overnight temperatures will return to the upper 30s with increasing cloud cover.   Winds will be light to moderate from the south.  On Tuesday warm humid conditions will extend northward from Texas resulting in a slight chance of rain in northeastern Oklahoma.


Trajectory Weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move northward across northeastern Oklahoma into northern Missouri and then to the east north of the Ohio River Valley.  The air mass characteristics are good for entrainment and travel with buoyant atmospheric conditions.  Temperatures across the region will be warm today and there will be moderate to strong winds from the south.   Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 30s with increasing humidity and partly to mostly cloudy conditions.  Tuesday will see cooler conditions with winds from the north to northeast. 


OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat Today *** Mixed Conditions for Pollen release. Cloudy and high humidity result in mixed conditions for pollen release within the Arbuckle Mountain population.  High temperatures today will be in the upper 40s which is borderline for pollen release.  The trajectories show good atmospheric conditions with rising, buoyant conditions away from the site.  However, all indications are that most of the pollen has left the Juniperus asheii cones therefore there is not much left to be entrained within the atmosphere.  Juniperus virginiana may have begun its pollination in south Texas so pollen reaching the Oklahoma skies may or may not be the more allergenic species.  Anything entrained into the atmosphere from the site should move over northeastern Oklahoma affecting the communities in the Tulsa region.  Potential influx from Texas may also affect the same area and areas to the west towards Oklahoma City.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.




Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail:


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