The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast



Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City



Low to Moderate

St. Louis MO




Date Issued: 28 January 2003


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 28 TX/OK/AR:  Warm conditions will exist across the region as pressure resides off to the east.  Moisture will build throughout the region today and many areas will see thick fog this morning.  The Jet stream will become active bringing clouds into the region with most locations being partly to mostly cloudy today tonight and into tomorrow.  Warm temperatures are expected region wide.  In Texas temperatures will warm up from mild conditions overnight into the upper 50s by noon and into the upper 60s by this afternoon.   Skies will be mostly cloudy to mostly today with fog along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau and the chance of drizzle in some areas.  Moderate to strong winds from the south to southwest will occur this afternoon as the jet stream becomes more active. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s and low 50s with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.  Winds will switch to a primarily northerly direction and be moderate.  On Wednesday, temperatures will cool 5 to 10 degrees and the humidity will decrease with the dryer northerly breezes .To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures today will be in the low 60s across the region.  Some areas may awake to fog this morning.  Partly cloudy skies with low to moderate humidity readings are expected.  Winds will be moderate to strong from the south to southwest.  Overnight winds will switch coming out of the north at moderate levels.  Temperatures will return to the upper 30s with partly cloudy skies.   On Wednesday, conditions will cool be 10 to 15 degrees with moderate winds from the north and partly cloudy skies.  Humidity will be moderate to high across the region Winds will maintain moderate strength coming from the north.


Trajectory Weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move northeastward across northeastern Oklahoma with the lower elevation air masses turning with the shift in winds towards the southeast.  The upper elevation winds continue to move towards the northeast.  The air mass trajectories show good conditions for entrainment and travel with rising atmospheric conditions.  Temperatures across the region will be warm with partly cloudy skies and highs in the low 60s and moderate to strong winds from the south.   Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 30s with increasing humidity and partly to mostly cloudy conditions.  Wednesday will see cooler conditions with moderate to strong winds from the north to northeast. 


OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat Today *** mixed Conditions for Pollen release. Partly to mostly cloudy skies, but warm temperatures and moderate humidity result in mixed conditions for pollen release within the Arbuckle Mountain population.  High temperatures today will be in the 60s with partly cloudy conditions.  The trajectories show good atmospheric conditions with rising, buoyant conditions away from the site.  However, all indications are that most of the pollen has left the Juniperus asheii cones therefore there is not much left to be entrained within the atmosphere. Juniperus virginiana may have begun its pollination in south Texas so pollen reaching the Oklahoma skies may or may not be the more allergenic species. Moderate weather conditions coupled with good conditions for entrainment and travel, but with a depleted source for pollen result in a Low to Moderate threat today. With the end of the season near, the Friday (January 31st) forecast will be the last for the season.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.




Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail:


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