The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast



Date Issued: 29 January 2003


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO


Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 29 TX/OK/AR:  Calm conditions will exist across the region today with slightly cooler weather moving in.  Moisture will build throughout the region today and many areas in Texas will see thick fog this morning along with drizzle.  In Texas temperatures will cool with high temperatures in the upper 50s to the low 60s from north to south.  Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy today with fog and drizzle this morning along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  Light to moderate winds from the north to northeast overnight and into tomorrow.  Overnight temperatures will be in the 40s with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. On Thursday, temperatures will cool a few degrees with most reading in the upper 50s and with increasing humidity readings.  To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures today will be in the 40s across the region.  Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with relatively high humidity readings are expected.  Winds will be moderate from the north to northeast.  Overnight temperatures will be around freezing in most areas with mostly cloudy skies.  Winds will be light from the north to northeast.  On Thursday, conditions will warm into the low 50s with light to moderate winds from the southeast.  Conditions will dry with lower humidity readings but a slight chance of some precipitation.


Trajectory Weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the southwest towards northern Texas then turn northeastern again moving across Oklahoma into Kansas.  The trajectory elevations show relatively stable atmospheric conditions during the entire travel period. Temperatures across the region will be cool, in the low 40s with cloudy skies and high relative humidity. Winds will be moderate from the north to northeast today switching direction to east to northeast overnight then east to southeast tomorrow.  Lows overnight will be in the mid 20s with similar conditions occurring tomorrow.    


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today*** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen Release.  Cool temperatures, mostly cloudy to cloudy skies, with high humidity levels result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. The trajectories show mixed conditions for entrainment and travel but without a source supply result in a low threat for downwind dispersal.  In addition, the trees should be nearing the end of their pollination season so the amount of pollen left to be dispersed is trailing off. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow. With the end of the season near, the Friday (January 31st) forecast will be the last for the season.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR



 Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


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