The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast



Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City




St. Louis MO




Date Issued: 28 January 2003


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 29 TX/OK/AR:  Calm conditions will exist across the region today with slightly cooler weather moving in.  Moisture will build throughout the region today and many areas in Texas will see thick fog this morning along with drizzle.  In Texas temperatures will cool with high temperatures in the upper 50s to the low 60s from north to south.  Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy today with fog and drizzle this morning along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  Light to moderate winds from the north to northeast overnight and into tomorrow.  Overnight temperatures will be in the 40s with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. On Thursday, temperatures will cool a few degrees with most reading in the upper 50s and with increasing humidity readings.  To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures today will be in the 40s across the region.  Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with relatively high humidity readings are expected.  Winds will be moderate from the north to northeast.  Overnight temperatures will be around freezing in most areas with mostly cloudy skies.  Winds will be light from the north to northeast.  On Thursday, conditions will warm into the low 50s with light to moderate winds from the southeast.  Conditions will dry with lower humidity readings but a slight chance of some precipitation.


Trajectory Weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move southward over central Texas.  The air mass trajectories begin with stable atmospheric conditions but sink to ground level overnight and move along the surface after that. Temperatures across the region will be cool with mostly cloudy skies, highs in the low 40s and moderate winds from the north.   Overnight temperatures will be in the mid to lower 30s with cloudy conditions.  Thursday will see slightly warmer and dryer conditions with light winds from the east to northeast. 


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today *** Unfavorable conditions for Pollen release. Mostly cloudy skies with cool temperatures and high humidity conditions result in poor conditions for pollen release within the Arbuckle Mountain population.  High temperatures today will only be in the upper 40s with mostly cloudy conditions.  The trajectories start with stable atmospheric conditions but then sink in elevation through most of the pathway.  All indications are that most of the pollen has left the Juniperus asheii cones therefore there is not much left to be entrained within the atmosphere. Poor weather conditions coupled with poor conditions for entrainment and travel, but with a depleted source for pollen result in a Low threat today. With the end of the season near, the Friday (January 31st) forecast will be the last for the season.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.




Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail:


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