The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

Date Issued: 30 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 30 TX/OK/AR:  Calm conditions will exist across the region today with slightly cooler weather moving in.  Moisture will build along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau in central Texas for cloudy conditions and the possibility of fog from Dallas south to Austin and San Antonio.  Sunny skies are expected to break out later in the day across the region.  In Texas temperatures will cool with high temperatures in the upper 50s to the low 60s across the region.  Skies will begin partly cloudy then begin to break late this morning into the afternoon for partly sunny conditions. Humidity will be moderate to light with dryer conditions towards the western areas.  Light winds from the north are expected switching to a south to southwesterly flow overnight.  Nighttime temperatures will be in the 40s with mostly clear conditions. On Friday, temperatures will warm into the upper 60s with sunny skies and low humidity across the region. To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures today will be in the mid 50s across the region.  Partly cloudy skies will eventually burn off to reveal mostly sunny conditions.  Humidity will be moderate across the region with light to moderate winds from the south to southeast. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s in most areas with partly cloudy skies.  Winds will be moderate from the south to southwest.  On Friday, conditions will warm into the low 60s with moderate winds from the north to northwest and skies will become sunny towards the afternoon.

 

Trajectory weather: All of the air mass trajectories move to the north on southerly breezes then turn near the border of Texas looping clockwise before moving north again. Those trajectories towards the west advance further north and the loop is larger. The air mass characteristics show relatively stable conditions for all of the trajectories. Temperatures across the region will warm into the upper 50s and low 60s today with moderate to high humidity levels and partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies from north to south.  Winds are from the north to northeast and light.  Overnight temperatures will only dip into the mid to upper 40s.  On Friday temperatures in the mid to upper 60s are expected with sunny to mostly sunny skies.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today ***Unfavorable to Mixed Conditions for Pollen Release Today.   This morning cloudy skies, high humidity, and mild temperatures are unfavorable for pollen release. Conditions will clear this afternoon. If sufficient drying occurs there may be limited release this afternoon. However with the end of the pollen season there is little pollen left for dispersal.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s today with partly cloudy skies. Warmer conditions are expected tomorrow with low humidity and sunny skies.  With the end of the season near, tomorrow's (January 31^st) forecast will be the last for the season.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

Austin, TX

 

 

Junction, TX

 

 

San Angelo, TX

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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