The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast



Date Issued: 30 January 2003


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO


Regional Weather: Thursday, January 30 TX/OK/AR:  Calm conditions will exist across the region today with slightly cooler weather moving in.  Moisture will build along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau in central Texas for cloudy conditions and the possibility of fog from Dallas south to Austin and San Antonio.  Sunny skies are expected to break out later in the day across the region.  In Texas temperatures will cool with high temperatures in the upper 50s to the low 60s across the region.  Skies will begin partly cloudy then begin to break late this morning into the afternoon for partly sunny conditions. Humidity will be moderate to light with dryer conditions towards the western areas.  Light winds from the north are expected switching to a south to southwesterly flow overnight.  Nighttime temperatures will be in the 40s with mostly clear conditions. On Friday, temperatures will warm into the upper 60s with sunny skies and low humidity across the region. To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures today will be in the mid 50s across the region.  Partly cloudy skies will eventually burn off to reveal mostly sunny conditions.  Humidity will be moderate across the region with light to moderate winds from the south to southeast. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s in most areas with partly cloudy skies.  Winds will be moderate from the south to southwest.  On Friday, conditions will warm into the low 60s with moderate winds from the north to northwest and skies will become sunny towards the afternoon.


Trajectory Weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the north across the Missouri with the lowest elevation winds moving east across Illinois.  The upper elevation winds move rapidly towards the Great Lakes and into Canada.  The lowest elevation winds travel along the ground whereas the other two are more buoyant and climb in elevation as they travel. Temperatures across the region will be cool, in the mid 40s with sunny skies and moderate relative humidity. Winds will be light from the south to southeast today switching to a south to southwest direction overnight and tomorrow.  Lows overnight will be in the mid 30s with temperatures tomorrow in the mid 40s but cloudy conditions expected.    


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today*** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen Release.  Sunny skies with moderate humidity levels today but cool temperatures result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. The trajectories show mixed conditions for entrainment and travel but without a source supply result in a low threat for downwind dispersal.  In addition, the trees should be nearing the end of their pollination season so the amount of pollen left to be dispersed is trailing off. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow. With the end of the season near, the Friday, January 31st will be the last forecast for the season.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR



 Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail:


Return to Forecasting Home Page