The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

Date Issued: 30 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 30 TX/OK/AR:  Calm conditions will exist across the region today with slightly cooler weather moving in.  Moisture will build along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau in central Texas for cloudy conditions and the possibility of fog from Dallas south to Austin and San Antonio.  Sunny skies are expected to break out later in the day across the region.  In Texas temperatures will cool with high temperatures in the upper 50s to the low 60s across the region.  Skies will begin partly cloudy then begin to break late this morning into the afternoon for partly sunny conditions. Humidity will be moderate to light with dryer conditions towards the western areas.  Light winds from the north are expected switching to a south to southwesterly flow overnight.  Nighttime temperatures will be in the 40s with mostly clear conditions. On Friday, temperatures will warm into the upper 60s with sunny skies and low humidity across the region. To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures today will be in the mid 50s across the region.  Partly cloudy skies will eventually burn off to reveal mostly sunny conditions.  Humidity will be moderate across the region with light to moderate winds from the south to southeast. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s in most areas with partly cloudy skies.  Winds will be moderate from the south to southwest.  On Friday, conditions will warm into the low 60s with moderate winds from the north to northwest and skies will become sunny towards the afternoon.

 

Trajectory Weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move northeastward across northeast Oklahoma the towards the east across Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. The air mass trajectories show buoyant atmospheric conditions with rising conditions along the entire pathway.  These conditions are good for entrainment and travel of pollen grains.  Temperatures across the region will be cool with highs in the mid 50s and partly cloudy skies.  Winds will be light from the south to southeast.   Overnight temperatures will drop to the upper 30s with partly cloudy conditions and light winds from the southwest.  Friday will see warmer conditions with mostly sunny skies and moderate winds from the north to northwest. 

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today *** Mixed conditions for Pollen release. This morning cloudy skies, mist, and high humidity are unfavorable for pollen release. Conditions are expected to clear this afternoon. If sufficient drying occurs there may be limited release this afternoon. However with the end of the pollen season there is little pollen left for dispersal.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s today with partly cloudy skies. Warmer conditions are expected tomorrow with low humidity and sunny skies.  With the end of the season near, the Friday (January 31^st) forecast will be the last for the season.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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