The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast



Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas / Fort Worth




San Antonio




Date Issued: 31 January 2003


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Thursday, January 31 TX/OK/AR:  Calm conditions will exist across the region today with warm weather conditions expected.  Moisture will build this morning along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau producing partly cloudy conditions and the potential for spotty fog patches but is expected to clear in the late morning producing sunny conditions.  In Texas high temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the region.  Skies will begin partly cloudy then break into sunny to mostly sunny conditions. Humidity will be moderate to light with dryer conditions towards the western areas.  Light to moderate winds from the northwest on the Plateau and from the southwest around the edge of the plateau are expected depending on the area, switching to a northerly direction overnight and becoming light.  Nighttime temperatures will be in the upper 40s with clear conditions.  To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures today will be in the upper 50s to low 60s across the region.  Skies will be partly cloudy skies with some sun breaks later in the day.  Humidity will be light across the region with moderate to strong winds from the north to northwest. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s in most areas with partly clear skies.  Winds will moderate to light conditions.


Trajectory weather: All of the air mass trajectories initially move to the south then loop back towards the north on southerly breezes. The trajectories towards the northwest have the largest loop before moving northward whereas the southern source site trajectories show a tighter loop and then significant travel towards the northeast. The air mass characteristics show relatively stable to rising atmospheric conditions to begin with but then they come back down to the ground overnight and move along the surface after that. Temperatures across the region will warm into the upper 60s and low 70s today with moderate to low humidity levels and mostly sunny skies from north to south. Overnight temperatures will only dip into the upper 40s.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today ***Favorable Conditions for Pollen Release Today.   Sunny skies today with warm temperatures across the region and low to moderate humidity result in favorable conditions for release but the end of the season is upon us and little pollen is left for dispersal.  The end of the pollination season is indicated by the lack of pollen reported in the atmosphere therefore the amount of pollen to be dispersed is at very low levels. Therefore the potential amount of pollen in the atmosphere should not be significant and a low threat exists.  Today is the last forecast for the season.  We would like to thank our informants throughout the region and would like to hear from you.  Please send any comments or concerns to


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.


Austin, TX



Junction, TX



San Angelo, TX




Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail:


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