The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast



Date Issued: 31 January 2003


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO



Regional Weather: Thursday, January 31 TX/OK/AR:  Calm conditions will exist across the region today with warm weather conditions expected.  Moisture will build this morning along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau producing partly cloudy conditions and the potential for spotty fog patches but is expected to clear in the late morning producing sunny conditions.  In Texas high temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the region.  Skies will begin partly cloudy then break into sunny to mostly sunny conditions. Humidity will be moderate to light with dryer conditions towards the western areas.  Light to moderate winds from the northwest on the Plateau and from the southwest around the edge of the plateau are expected depending on the area, switching to a northerly direction overnight and becoming light.  Nighttime temperatures will be in the upper 40s with clear conditions.  To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures today will be in the upper 50s to low 60s across the region.  Skies will be partly cloudy skies with some sun breaks later in the day.  Humidity will be light across the region with moderate to strong winds from the north to northwest. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s in most areas with partly clear skies.  Winds will moderate to light conditions


Trajectory Weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the southeast towards Florida with the lowest elevation winds turning up the Mississippi River Valley and then the Ohio River Valley. The winds show stable conditions with slightly sinking air eventually causing them to move near the ground. Temperatures across the region will be cool, in the upper 40s with partly cloudy skies and a chance of precipitation this morning.  Skies will clear this afternoon and stay clear overnight.  Winds will be moderate to strong from the north to northwest today calming overnight.  Lows overnight will be in the low to mid 30s with clear skies and light winds.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today*** Unfavorable Conditions for Pollen Release.  Partly cloudy skies with moderate humidity levels today but cool temperatures result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. The trajectories show mixed conditions for entrainment and travel but without a source supply result in a low threat for downwind dispersal.  In addition, the trees should be nearing the end of their pollination season so the amount of pollen left to be dispersed is trailing off. Today is the last forecast for the season.  We would like to thank our informants throughout the region and would like to hear from you.  Please send any comments or concerns to


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR



 Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail:


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