The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

Date Issued: 31 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 31 TX/OK/AR:  Calm conditions will exist across the region today with warm weather conditions expected.  Moisture will build this morning along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau producing partly cloudy conditions and the potential for spotty fog patches but is expected to clear in the late morning producing sunny conditions.  In Texas high temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the region.  Skies will begin partly cloudy then break into sunny to mostly sunny conditions. Humidity will be moderate to light with dryer conditions towards the western areas.  Light to moderate winds from the northwest on the Plateau and from the southwest around the edge of the plateau are expected depending on the area, switching to a northerly direction overnight and becoming light.  Nighttime temperatures will be in the upper 40s with clear conditions.  To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures today will be in the upper 50s to low 60s across the region.  Skies will be partly cloudy skies with some sun breaks later in the day.  Humidity will be light across the region with moderate to strong winds from the north to northwest. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s in most areas with partly clear skies.  Winds will moderate to light conditions.

 

Trajectory Weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move southward then turn over the Dallas/ Ft. Worth area back northward and move northeastward across northeast Oklahoma and into Missouri.  The air mass trajectories show sinking atmospheric conditions along the entire pathway.  These conditions are not good for entrainment and travel of pollen grains.  Temperatures across the region will be warm with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and partly cloudy skies clearing to mostly sunny conditions during the day.  Winds will be light from the north switching to a more southerly direction overnight.   Overnight temperatures will drop to the upper 30s to low 40s with clear conditions and light winds from the south andwest.. 

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today *** Favorable conditions for Pollen release. Partly cloudy skies breaking into sunny conditions with warming temperatures and moderate humidity conditions result in favorable conditions for pollen release but there is little pollen left to be dispersed.  High temperatures today will be in the upper 50s with partly cloudy breaking into sunny conditions.  The trajectories show poor atmospheric conditions with sinking air along the entire travel length. All indications are that most of the pollen has left the Juniperus asheii cones therefore there is not much left to be entrained within the atmosphere. Even though good weather conditions and good conditions for entrainment and travel exist, the depleted source for pollen results in a Low threat today. Today is the last forecast for the season.  We would like to thank our informants throughout the region and would like to hear from you.  Please send any comments or concerns to pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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