The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

Date Issued: 28 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 28 and Sunday, December 29 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will be under the influence of high pressure as warm, sunny and dry conditions prevail across the region.  In Texas, mild conditions will continue both days as temperatures will reach the mid to upper 60s both Saturday and Sunday.  The High pressure to the east will funnel some moisture into the region tomorrow, but skies will remain mostly sunny to sunny. Winds will be moderate from the southwest throughout the day and overnight but will pick up their intensity tomorrow afternoon.  Southwestern winds above 25 miles per hour are expected from Oklahoma City to the northern portion of the Edwards Plateau. Humidity will remain low with zero percent chance of rain over the weekend.  However a significant moisture gradient will occur across the region on Sunday with humidity expected to be above 50% along the eastern edge and below 50% to the west.  Temperatures overnight will be mild with reading in the mid to upper 40s.  Similar conditions exist to the north with a weekend of sunny warm weather. Temperatures will reach the upper 50s to low 60s today and tomorrow with nighttime readings around 40.  Humidity will remain low today and tomorrow with winds showing moderate strength gaining in strength tomorrow afternoon.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Austin move to the north-northeast  over the Dallas region and into Oklahoma, with the low elevation trajectory passing over Tulsa and upper winds spreading over areas to the east.  To the west the trajectories also move north passing over northern Texas and into Oklahoma moving across the area between Oklahoma City and Tulsa.  All three trajectories show good characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel over long-distances.  Coupled with the good weather conditions for release significant amounts of pollen may be moved over the area.  Sunday:  On Sunday conditions will continue to be mild but with strong winds across the region.  A quick look at forecast trajectories for Sunday show rapid movement towards the north over Oklahoma and into the upper mid-west and Great Lakes region.  With strong winds and good conditions for entrainment and travel should again bring the possibility of significant amounts of pollen to northern communities in Texas and Oklahoma.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Saturday: Severe Threat today***Favorable conditions for pollen release today. ***Sunday: Severe Threat today ***Favorable conditions for pollen release today. Sunny skies, with warm temperatures, low humidity and moderate winds will prevail across the region today especially to the south making for favorable conditions for pollen release within the trees. As we near the peak of the release season, the low humidity and warm temperatures should favor significant pollen release.  The trajectory characteristics show good conditions for entrainment and travel therefore there is a severe threat to downwind communities.  This includes not only the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau (Austin, Waco, Dallas/Ft. Worth) and population centers further downwind (Oklahoma City, Tulsa) along with most of eastern Oklahoma, estern Kansas along with Missouri (St. Louis).  To the south, the moderate to strong winds should take most of the pollen to the north but some leakage may occur back over the San Antonio area, thus a moderate threat is forecast. Sunday:  On Sunday conditions will remain essentially the same, however increased wind strength across the region may result in pollen remaining entrained for longer travel distances.  Humidity on the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau may dampen some of the release but overall conditions similar to Saturdays are expected.  Favorable conditions for pollen release and a severe threat exist for communities in north Texas, central to eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and western Missouri.  This includes Austin, Waco, Dallas/Ft. Worth, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and St Louis.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

Austin, TX

 

 

Junction, TX

 

 

San Angelo, TX

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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